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    Recovery from Tyranny: The Bourbon Restoration as Understood by Chateaubriand

    September 23, 2025 by Will Morrisey

    François René vicomte de Chateaubriand: Political Reflections on the True Interests of the French Nation: and on Some Publications Which Have Lately Appeared. No translator listed. London: Henry Colburn, 1814.

    _____. The Monarchy According to the Charter. No translator listed. London: John Murray, 1816.

     

    By 1814, the French Revolution and the rule of Napoleon, including his disastrous wars, had bled France. More, it had left the French with the worst kind of political factions—regime factions, in which partisans of hereditary monarchy, republicanism, and Bonapartism menaced one another and the country as a whole. Yet perhaps the nation’s very exhaustion meant an opportunity for a settlement. This was the hope of the Bourbon Restoration, whereby the Count of Provence, brother of the late Louis XVI, returned from exile, ascended the throne as Louis XVIII, and wrote the Charter of 1814, a new constitution for a new regime of limited monarchy. Napoleon’s celebrated enemy, the long-exiled vicomte de Chateaubriand, applauded the Restoration, joined the king during his brief exile when Napoleon returned to power during the period called the Hundred Days, and wrote his Political Reflections in an attempt to answer criticisms of the Charter, “to reconcile opinions, and to call the attention of all Frenchmen to their true interests” (“Advertisement”). 

    Chateaubriand begins with a moral analogy. If a man guilty of “the greatest crimes” was condemned by a judge, surely the criminal’s brother could not have “amiable intercourse” with the judge; “the cry of blood has separated these two men eternally” (1.1). The same would be true, and even more justifiable, if the man condemned had been innocent. Would it not then be rash of the ones who condemned Louis XVI to death to attempt to vindicate the execution in the presence of his brother? And yet Louis XVIII “has given his word to forget everything,” having pardoned his brother’s killers (1.4). In his government, he has continued officeholders in their places, regardless of whether they have been royalists or republicans, with the only disqualification being moral turpitude, the only qualification being “intelligence and integrity” (11.61).

    Unfortunately, others lack the king’s prudence, to say nothing of his Christian spirit. They seek to justify the execution of Louis XVI, attempting to exculpate themselves from charges that the king himself has not lodged against them. There are precedents for such self-justification. Protestants in France (and in England, with Cromwell) have asserted “the legality of regicide,” as have Catholics, as far back as the sixteenth century. Indeed, “the arguments then produced are written with a vigor, science and a logical reasoning rarely to be found in these days” (3.8), when authors seek “by mutilated and ill-explained [Bible] quotations to disturb the minds of simple believers, while to themselves these quotations are merely subjects of ridicule” (4.12). They thus “kindle the altar of immolation with the double torch of fanaticism and philosophy”—a “perfectly new combination,” a sort of demonic reverse-Thomism (4.13). And while the enemies of England’s Cromwell had been persecuted by him, “they were for the most part perfectly moral and religious men” who “did not enrich themselves with the spoils of the proscribed,” as the French revolutionaries had done when confiscating properties held by the Church and the aristocracy (4.15) in “one of the most flagrant acts of injustice produced by the revolution,” the “most dangerous [example] ever given to mankind” (6.37). Nor did the English civil wars of the seventeenth century cause “the arming of all Europe” against England, as the French Revolution had done (4.18). Fortunately (or providentially) “the bravery of our soldiers saved France from the dangers to which you had exposed her, by calling down the vengeance of all nations on an unexampled crime” (4.18). 

    Chateaubriand doubts that “these deplorable apologies” betoken any hope of a return to a republican regime; the former revolutionaries have been “cured of that chimera.” Further, the “limited monarchy” of Louis XVIII’s Constitutional Charter assures them “all proper guarantees of liberty” (5.19). The apologists exhibit rather “a diseased conscience which nothing can tranquilize, an insufferable vanity which is angry at not being exclusively called to the king’s counsels,” and “a secret despair arising from the insurmountable barrier between Louis XVIII and the murderers of Louis XVI”—does he really pardon us, they ask themselves (5.19). To this latter worry Chateaubriand responds that the king is “very firmly fixed upon the throne,” from which “no human power can now shake him” (5.26). He has no need to ‘make sure of them,’ as Machiavelli advises his ‘prince.’ The king “has no reason to dissemble”; “compassion is his birthright,” and “his word is besides pledged” (5.26). His critics rather seek “to agitate men’s minds, to disseminate idle fears,” and “foment dissensions”—suggesting that they haven’t been entirely cured of republicanism, after all (5.27). But today’s post-revolutionary, post-Napoleonic “France has a great need of repose”; “everyone who truly loves his country [will] endeavor to pour oil into her wounds, not increase and inflame them,” especially since “the miseries at which they repine are trifles in comparison with the errors into which they had fallen,” less than two decades ago (5.28). Prominent among these, as remarked earlier, was the confiscation of the property of the king and the aristocracy. Nonetheless, no reversal of these confiscations, no return of property to the returning exiles, should be undertaken. This would only “repair one injustice by violently committing another,” threatening the ruin of the “new families” and bringing “new convulsions” upon France (6.38). “Disinterestedness and honor are the two great virtues of the French nation: with such a foundation everything may be hoped for” (6.38). Instead of expropriating the expropriators, the King proposes to compensate the exiles with monies allocated annually from his own revenues. This is one instance proving that “the King is the glory and safety of France” (6.38). His intentions have been confirmed throughout this year, as “vengeance was dreaded” by many but, “with the character of the King being bey degrees better known, men’s fears were calmed” (9.45).

    It is true that Louis XVIII “insisted on receiving the throne as his inheritance, not as a gift of the people” (10.51). Rightly so, in Chateaubriand’s estimation, as hereditary monarchy is better than elective monarchy. “We are not a republic, and he ought not to recognize the sovereignty of the people” (10.52). Law and hereditary kingship “are perfectly compatible, or rather they are one and the same thing, according to Cicero, and according to common sense” (10.52). Louis XVIII is not “King of the French”—the “master, the possessor, of them”—but “the King of France”—possessor of the country, “proprietor of the territory,” especially against foreign encroachments (10.53). And he is so “By the Grace of God,” inasmuch as “everything is by the Grace of God” (10.54). Pace Enlightenment philosophes: “The greatest philosophers were of the opinion that a religious formula was no less favorable to politics than to morals” (10.55). Chateaubriand argues that the French Republic “last[ed] but for a moment” because its founders “sought to separate the present entirely from the past, to build an edifice without a base, to pluck up religion by the roots, to renew our laws entirely, to change even our language,” an ambition leading to a “monument floating in the air, which had no support in heaven or on earth,” consequently vanishing “with the breath of the first storm” (X.55). When the English, “more reasonable than ourselves,” built their existing political institutions “on the base which they found,” some called it slavery, but “it is owing to such exaggerated views of things that we have passed from the excess of demagogism” under the republic “to the most abject submission to a tyrant,” Napoleon (10.57). The English, by contrast, have “strengthened the bases of liberty among them by giving that liberty a sort of sacred character” (X.58). In France, “a wise and monarchical liberty” can be “the offspring of our own moeurs,” with features “we should recognize [as] our own” (X.59). “An order of things must consequently be found, in which all that is venerable in the political ideas of our forefathers may be preserved without opposing the present ideas too much” (XIII.74).

    Chateaubriand acknowledges that no new regime can simply imitate the Ancien Regime. France now has “two great classes”: the aristocrats (comprising most of the royalists), “those who are not obliged to work for a living”; and those who are so obliged, those whom “fortune places in a state of dependence” (XIII.71-72). Both need “good laws”; the commoners also need additional “consideration” because “equality…has been established in education and fortune,” an equality that has carried them “from the empire of custom to the empire of reason” (XIII.72). Add to civil-social equality the liberty of thought and of political action and it is evident that “it would be dangerous to outrage” le peuple (XIII.72). That is, Chateaubriand already sees the ‘Tocqueville problem’—the difficulty of founding a regime of liberty on an egalitarian social base. Louis XVIII also sees this, and “it is what he has provided for in the Charter,” where “all the bases of a rational liberty are accurately laid down, republican principles being so happily incorporated with it, that they serve to strengthen and uphold the grandeur of the monarchy” (XIII.73).

    Louis XVIII’s Constitutional Charter of 1814 denies sovereignty to the people, lodging it firmly in the State, which consists of the monarchy and a bicameral legislature with a Chamber of Peers for the aristocrats (members to be appointed by the king) and a Chamber of Deputies (replacing the Estates-General of previous regimes) for the commoners, a small percentage of whom would be entitled to vote, based on a stringent property qualification. The main republican feature of the new government is its list of legal rights enjoyed by all Frenchmen: freedom of religion (although the Roman Catholic Church would be the ‘established’ or State church), freedom of speech and of the press, due process, and a strong right to hold private property against the State (“we are the first people in the world who, by the constitutional act, have abolished the right of confiscation” of property, “a fatal source of corruption, of injustice, and of crimes” [XIV.77-78]). In a turn away from the militarism of both the First Republic and the Bonaparte regime, conscription is abolished. The king initiates the laws, which the parliament then may or may not ratify. The king appoints his ministers, who are not responsible to the legislature. He also appoints the judges. The king conducts foreign policy, including military policy. Being a gift from the king to the people, the Charter is not amendable by the people or the legislature, but neither may the king amend it. The regime is, then, a genuine but limited monarchy, limited by its aristocratic and democratic elements, intended to be perpetual, to end the regime turmoil of the previous three decades.

    Both constitutionalist republicans and royalists of the ‘absolutist’ stripe have objected to the Charter. The republicans want additional reforms, more power to the people. Chateaubriand chides them for their impatience, noting that the English Constitution has taken “ages” to reach its current form and riposting that for the French “perfection must be immediately attained” and as a result, “everything is lost because everything is not gained” (XIV.77). As a guard against an overbearing national State, “public opinion” stands as a formidable if informal counterweight (XIV.79). Indeed, “the sensibility of our nation in this respect is so strong, that the great fear is lest, like Athens, it should be too much alive to the inspirations of our orators” (XIV.80). Even under the old monarchy, “we have placed in our opinions the independence which other nations have placed in their laws,” “rarely submitting unconditionally to the opinions of others” (XIV.83). 

    With respect to the aristocrats, much suspected among the people, Chateaubriand begins by citing Montesquieu. The philosopher calls honor the principle of monarchy, virtue the principle of a republic. In this bicameral legislature, with one aristocratic branch and another democratic-republican branch, balancing one another, “political virtue” or liberty will be upheld because the aristocrats, lovers of honor as ardent as the king, will rally around him, protecting him from republican excesses (XV.84). The problem with the previous Bourbon regimes was that the aristocratic representatives sat in the Estates-General, where they leaned toward republicanism, leaving the aristocratic defenders of monarchic rights, of the monarchic principle of honor, in civil society, not the government. Now, with the Chamber of Peers, they return to the government itself, along with honor. There, they will be “the preservers of all traditions in which honor is concerned,” “the heralds-at-arms of past times” (XV.88). The Chamber of Peers will become “an excellent nursery of offices, of orators, and of statesmen” (XV.88).

    For their part, many Royalists, longing for a return to the absolute, unlimited monarchy of the pre-revolutionary Bourbons, regard the Charter as English-all-too-English, incompatible with French moeurs and with France’s more perilous geopolitical circumstance on the main part of the European continent, often threatened by foreign armies. If the bicameral legislature dithers on military spending, they say, “we shall have an enemy at the gates of Paris!” (XVI.92). If, once his army is funded, and the king “can dispose of the soldiery at his pleasure, he may destroy our pretended constitution whenever he is so disposed” (XVI.92). As to our moeurs, in its essence the Charter is an Enlightenment document, they charge, more in line with utilitarian-Lockean England than with France. On this, Chateaubriand concedes that the Enlightenment has “strangely perverted” such terms as constitution, liberty, and equality; in Santo Domingo, for example, “the throats of white men have been cut, to prove that blacks ought to be free”; in France, “reason has been deployed to dethrone the deity and, in leading the human race to perfection,” men “have been made to descend lower than the brutes” (XVI.92-93). That is to say, what Montesquieu means by republican virtue and what Robespierre meant by it are two very different things. And following the excesses of the Revolution, “to rescue ourselves from systems ill-understood, we have plunged into ideas directly opposite”—the “outrages” of Napoleonic tyranny (XVI.93). “The double lesson of anarchy and despotism teach us then that the glory and happiness of France is only to be sought in a wise medium” (XVI.93). Advocates of republicanism in France have charged religion with murder and tyranny; advocates of absolutist monarchy and even Napoleonic despotism have accused reason of the same thing. “This manner of reasoning, on either side, is futile: what is essentially good”—and both religion and reason are essentially good—must “remain so, independently of the evil purposes to which it has been applied” (XVI.94).

    The fact that the Charter constitutes a regime resembling the mixed regime of England does not mean that it cannot be good for France. To say so “is a very great error” (XVI.94). The mixed regime wasn’t invented by the English. “It was the opinion of all the ancients that the best form of government possible”—the best one in practice, as distinguished from theory—should include the powers of the one, the few, and the many (XVI.95). Ancient philosophers (Pythagoras Aristotle, Plato, Cicero), one lawgiver (Lycurgus), and sober historians (Polybius, Tacitus) all endorsed the mixed regime, whereas Christianity instituted the representative government adapted to ‘secular’ government by the moderns. Moreover, the origin of the idea doesn’t matter. “It suits our present situation,” is in “no way adverse to our moeurs,” and is “not an absolutely foreign production” (XVI.97).

    Having lost so many of its aristocrats on the battlefields of the wars imposed upon it by its geopolitical position, France’s monarchy strengthened too much in the seventeenth century. This was the origin of Ancien Regime absolutism. Louis XIV’s chief minister, Richelieu, “completed the ruin of the aristocratic power” (XVI.100). The First Republic not only ruined them politically but killed or exiled the bulk of them, leaving France vulnerable to Bonaparte. The Charter seeks to recover some of the old equilibrium while giving the King the power he needs to defend the realm on the soil where it sits. “Can anyone seriously believe that if an enemy were on the frontiers, the two houses would refuse to grant the King an army, or that the proprietors of estates would tamely suffer them to be invaded?” (XVIII.110). Surely not “among a people so tenacious of honor, so deeply enamored of military renown” (XVIII.110). And even given its continental position, there could not be “an invasion so sudden, so unexpected, that he should not have received some notice of it a long time beforehand” in this time before motorized transport capable of Blitzkrieg (XVIII.111). True, “it is evident that much greater authority must be left to the executive power in France than in England,” that there is a greater need for secrecy and dispatch—even to the point of needing, in times of national emergency, an executive similar to the Roman dictator—but this is not necessarily a danger to the republican element of the regime (XVIII.111-112). “Our monarchy, perfectly free at home, ought to remain wholly military abroad,” and it can, since in France, unlike England, where manufacturers are honored as much as military officers, the soldier is regarded as “a man who not only exercises the noblest of professions but pursues the most useful career for the State,” combining honor with utility (XVIII.113). The French begin to understand that the republican liberty cap must be concealed “beneath a helmet” (XVIII.113). 

    As for the danger that the monarch will overbear the legislature, public opinion will prevent it. Even under the Ancien Regime, public opinion “served, as it were, instead of a Charter” (XVIII.115). “Everything, even to the politeness of our moeurs, became a check upon absolute authority”; “why then should this opinion, formerly so powerful, have now lost its force?” (XVIII.115). It hasn’t, as seen in the influence of the newspapers. And politically relevant public opinion today no longer confines itself to France. “There is, moreover, at the present day, a general opinion which predominates over all particular opinions: this is the European opinion—an opinion which obliges one nation to follow the others”; “you must, whether you will or not, be hurried along in the current of the times” (XIX.119). By this, Chateaubriand means something rather more modest than Hegel’s dialectically unfolding Absolute Spirit. He simply observes that the old balance between “the three orders of the state”—the clergy, the aristocrats, the commoners—has been “destroyed” (XIX.121). “It is difficult to express how favorable to virtue was this division in the order of respective social duties”: sacrifices “exacted from the priest”; “delicacy of sentiment” from the aristocrat; “fidelity, probity, respect for the laws, and an observance of good moeurs” from the commoners (XIX.123). That balanced regime “produced the long existence of the ancient monarchy,” which “depended more upon moral force than upon political coercion” (XIX.123). But the Revolution destroyed that regime and it cannot be reconstructed. The cat of democratization is out of the bag. In the new social order, to which political regimes throughout Europe must be adapted, “there are some persons who displease you,” you royalists (XIX.128). Too bad: “be it so” (XIX.128). And take heart, since “they will pass away, and France will still remain” (XIX.128). It is “inevitable” that “men’s minds” return slowly “to a state of quiescence” after a revolution, but that “is not such an evil as ought to make us renounce the good of our country,” make us reject the Charter because it fails to do the impossible, to return to the Ancien Regime (XIX.128-129). As Tocqueville will later remark, “the moeurs of the times” have changed, and that is “a necessity to which all things are imperiously forced to yield” (XIX.130). 

    “To be a good patriot, or a man for one’s country, it is necessary to be a man of the times” (XX.131). It isn’t to become a Hegelian, a historicist, but to be “a man who, waiving his own opinions, prefers the happiness of his country to everything else,” one who “seeks no impossibility” but “endeavors to make the best use of the materials which are offered to his hand,” a man of practical reason and moderation “who believes, with Solon, that in an enlightened but corrupt age, it is our duty not to regulate our moeurs by the Government but to form the Government agreeable to the existing state of moeurs” (XX.132). [1] That is what the Constitutional Charter does. Aristocrats take note: some of your rights had been “destroyed in public opinion” before the Revolution and Bonaparte (XX.133). Under the Charter, however, you may still hold the rank of officers in the army, even if you must share it with commoners “who have received a respectable education” (XX.133). And aristocrats from the provinces will no longer be held back from rising in the ranks. “Who is he, then, that amongst you will oppose the generous alliance of liberty and honor,” the “essential constituents of nobility”? (XX.136). The Chamber of Peers gives aristocrats an important set of rights and responsibilities in the regime, a more important set than they enjoyed in practice under the absolute monarchy of the last century of the Ancien Regime. The Charter “restores to the gentry their ancient share in the government” and “at the same time draws them nearer to the people as their protectors and defenders,” as they were before Louis XIV and Richelieu fully established absolutism. 

    And for the commoners, “the most numerous class in France,” the Charter enables all the French “to enjoy that liberty which we have purchased with the purest blood of France,” treating “man with his just dignity” (XXI.144). Far from a historicist, Chateaubriand lauds the Charter’s acknowledgment of “natural rights,” seen in its opening to “all Frenchmen” the opportunity to serve in civil and military positions (XXI.144). You are not getting a republic, but “what man is there who can now be silly enough to dream of a republic after so much sad experience?” (XXI.145). Surely “the Convention has cured us forever of all desire for a republic” even as “Bonaparte had corrected our love of absolute power” (Conclusion.158).Under the new monarchic regime, your natural rights are given legal force with representative government, the right of petition, property rights including the abolition of confiscation, “personal independence, and a safeguard against the attacks of government” seen in all the rights now formalized (XXI.146). “One idea alone has survived” the Revolution,” namely, “the idea of a political order of things which should protect the rights of the people without infringing upon those of the Sovereign” (Conclusion.158).

    Finally, the King “finds in the Charter its safety and its splendor” (XXII.148). He has ample resources to protect himself from revolutionary assault and to win the approval of public opinion, whether through “military glory,” patronage of the arts and sciences, or “political researches” into policies that will “give additional value to the institutions of his country” (XXII.148). French monarchs have themselves changed their ways of ruling as circumstances changed, so why should they pine for the old absolutism that can no longer be?

    “All Europe seems now disposed to adopt the system of moderate monarchies” (Conclusion.151). There is no need to yearn, Napoleon-like, for a vast empire, since “France only ends where French is no longer spoken”; its cultural empire remains, provoking no hatred (Conclusion.152). [2] “Let us now replace the heat of discord and the ardor of conquest by a taste for the arts and for the glorious exertions of genius,” no longer “look[ing] beyond ourselves” (Conclusion.154). That heat and that ardor have enhanced the French character, the French ethos, “both in force and in gravity,” making us a “less frivolous, more natural, and more justly simple” people (Conclusion.155). Religion now wins real converts rather than persons who merely go through the motions. And “morals have not only survived in our hearts, but are no longer the mere fruit of domestic instruction, being now founded upon the dictates of an enlightened understanding”—an enlightenment not of abstract theory but of harsh experience (Conclusion.155). And so, “Let us then pride ourselves in being Frenchmen—in being free Frenchmen, under a monarch sprung from our own blood,” not under the Corsican Bonaparte, “esteem[ing] other nations without forgetting ourselves” (Conclusion.157). 

    The still-unsettled character of regime politics prompted Chateaubriand to intervene in the debate a year later with another book, The Monarchy According to the Charter. At this point, he was a member of the Chamber of Peers, with a “duty to declare the truth to France,” and a Minister of State, with a “duty to declare the truth to the King” (Preface v). At this time, “France appear[s] to me to be menaced with new misfortunes” because its new regime of constitutional monarchy is marbled with officers who opposite it and work against it from within (Preface vi).

    There are two kinds of monarchists in France: those who support the Bourbon Restoration and those whose opinions are animated by “the moral interests of the revolution”—the Bonapartists (Preface vii). Representative government, seen in the legislature, resembles that well established in contemporary England and the Netherlands. There are also the state administrators, consisting not only of the ministers but also their putative subordinates; Chateaubriand sees that a good man appointed to run an administrative department may have limited influence over the functionaries. Additionally, although the ministers act in the name of the king they may nonetheless act in ways incompatible with the king’s interests.

    So, “Three modes of government might exist under the legitimate king”: the ancien regime of absolutism; a despotism or tyranny along Bonapartist lines; the constitutional monarchy under the Charter (I.1). Napoleon is gone, and with him any real prospect of despotism. Absolutism, too, is finished. “There remains then the legitimate monarchy under the constitutional charter,” the “only good mode now left to us” and “the only possible one” (I.2). Unfortunately, “we have contrived to mistake the spirit and character of the Charter” (II.3), succumbing to passions and interests (“our temper”), pursuing aims that contradict one another, opposing both the spirit and the operation of the government, and exhibiting a lack of courage seen in our fear of liberty and preference for “the tranquility of arbitrary power” (II.3). Addressing both the moral principles animating the several factions and the regimes they advocate, “I hope to adhere, above all, to the plain principles of common sense, a rarer quality than its name indicates—alas!” because “the Revolution has so confounded all our ideas, that in politics, as well as religion, France has to begin again with the catechism” (II.4).

    The Charter sets down four elements of a “representative monarchy.” These are the King, exercising the royal prerogative, the House of Peers, the House of Deputies, and the Ministry. According to the royal prerogative, “nothing is done directly by the King himself”; he is “as it were, a divinity, placed behind our reach, inviolable and infallible”—pope-like (IV.6). [3] “His person is sacred, and his will can do no wrong.” This is why French citizens may “discuss public affairs without offense to the Monarch, and we may criticize measures which, though in his name, are the mere acts of his Ministers” (IV.6). To put it another way, the King must permit his ministers “to act according to their own views,” not as “the mere executors of the royal will” (V.7). The King sanctions laws; he does not originate them. As a result, members of the legislature “hardly knew how to act when, in the name of the King, they were invited to attack the best interests of the throne” (V.9). If the legislature ventures to reject an ordonnance sanctioned by the King, then his wisdom is denied and a second ordonnance on the subject must declare, at least in effect, that his wisdom was deceived. “All this is miserable, and injurious to the royal person and royal dignity” (VI.11). The King’s approval ought to be “reserved for the final sanction of the law…and not for the sketch of a law proposed by Ministers, and liable to alteration, and even rejection, by the legislature” (VI.11). Under the ancient regime, the King was indeed “the supreme legislator,” but that is no longer the case under what is in reality a mixed regime with a legislature that actually legislates (VI.11). Under the current, mistaken, notion of the Charter’s spirit and character, either the King (in fact his Ministers) will dominate the legislature, curbing “free discussion” of the proposed laws, or that discussion will “impair the respect due to the King’s name, and tend to a degradation of the Royal authority,” France’s only hope for “tranquility and happiness” (VI.12). Although Bonapartists and absolutists fear that such a reform of the Charter, making its letter conform to its spirit and character, will revive the First Republic’s “mania for lawmaking,” Chateaubriand doubts it, as “the spirit of the nation” is no longer revolutionary, the legislature is bicameral, no longer unicameral as it was under that regime; existing procedures slow things down, permitting time for deliberation to overtake the passions of the moment, and the King has not only veto power over laws approved by the legislature but the power to dissolve the legislature and to require new elections (VII.13). Both the King and Ministers and the legislature ought to have the power to propose laws, freely and openly, “open to public observation” (VIII.16). That way, Ministers will no longer be able to “work upon the conscience of the loyal, by exclaiming, ‘It is the King’s proposal—it is his royal will—his Majesty can never consent to this or that amendment” (IX.19). Both the executive and the legislative branches of the government will need to concur, if a proposed law is to be enacted. Indeed, most laws should be initiated by the legislature; ordonnances should be advanced sparingly. “Can it be doubted that it is more reasonable, more decent, more dignified, that the Chambers should discuss and propose, and that the King should examine and approve” (XI.23)?

    This hardly renders the King impotent. “Accountable only to God and his conscience,” he heads the French Catholic Church, standing as the exemplar of family duties and “the fountain of their education and morals,” and he can pardon those convicted under the laws, all while maintaining his power to sanction or reject proposed laws; he appoints and dismisses his Ministers, wields the power to declare war, and acts as commander in chief of the army (XII.25). This is a constitutional monarchy in which the monarch enjoys very substantial powers, indeed.

    The Revolution attacked the French aristocracy, which now needs “higher privileges, honors, and fortunes” in order to make the Chamber of Peers into a truly independent branch of the legislature. Chateaubriand recommends making more of the peerages hereditary, restoring primogeniture (indispensable to the maintenance of a stable aristocracy), and the redemption of some of the lands confiscated by the revolutionaries. “When the Peers have inferior titles, and less territorial property, than the Deputies, the political balance is destroyed—the natural force of the aristocracy either is lost, or goes to swell the democratic importance of the Chamber of Deputies,” which will come to wield “a dangerous but inevitable preponderance, uniting to its natural and legitimate popularity, the equality of titles and the superiority of fortune” (XIV.31).

    With regard to the Chamber of Deputies, Chateaubriand recommends that it function like the British House of Commons, although he is careful not to say so explicitly. He praises the practice of questioning the Ministers and of requiring the Ministry to be “identified with the majority of the Chambers” (XV.36). Press accounts may not insult the body as such, although they may insult individual members, whose speeches, however, may not be altered by newspaper editors. As a further restriction on journalistic exuberance, “the Deputies may call a libeler to their own bar or may direct a public prosecution against him in the courts of justice” (XVI.37). Still, “without the Liberty of the Press there can be no representative government,” a regime “founded on enlightened public opinion,” since “the Chambers cannot be aware of that opinion if the opinion has no organ,” if the press cannot function as “the tongue of the people” (XVII.39). Thus, the police, who operate at the behest of the Ministers, will “destroy the Constitutional balance” by “turn[ing] the public opinion against the Chambers” if they are charged with supervising the press (XVIII.40). As things now stand, “there is no sort of calumny which has not been heaped upon the Chambers” in an effort to discredit it and to further centralize power in executive hands (XIX.43). “No free constitution can exist” under such conditions (XIX.44), even if press freedom is “not without danger” (XX.45). Accordingly, press restrictions should be imposed not by executive action but by “the laws alone” (XX.45). “Ministers sincerely constitutional can never wish us to risk the state, in order to spare their feelings,” “the smarts or itchings of a miserable vanity” (XXI.48). When a legislator, “in his place, should make a severe observation on a Minister, the latter should not think that France is therefore undone, and that the nation is ruined because he is laughed at” (XXXVII.79). If Ministers wish to promote their policies, they should have their own journals, their own writers, to “gather public sentiment about them” (XXI.49); they should exercise freedom of the press to counter opposition politicians and writers exercising that same freedom. And if they simply can’t tolerate criticism, “they should go live elsewhere” (XXI.50). For such sensitive souls, “a free government can never please them” (50). “Under a constitutional Monarchy, public opinion is the legitimate source and principle of administration” (XXIV.56).

    What the Ministers can and should do is to prepare the budget, then submit it to the Deputies for their approval. Again, this should “go smoothly” if the Ministry “will return to just principles” and if the Cabinet is part of a legislative majority. The Ministry should be assembled out of eminent men who exhibit “shrewdness in discovering the characters of mankind and art in managing them,” “firm, bold, [and] decided in the measures” “deliberately adopted” by his colleagues (XXVII.59), men whose private opinions may differ but, “once assembled in Cabinet, they should thenceforward have but one mind” (XXV.57). The Cabinet should be sufficiently numerous to divide administrative work equitably”; a numerous body will also increase the number of allies the Ministry has and lessen intrigue “by affording many and fair objects of ambition” (XXVI.58). As to relations with the legislature, “instead of calumniating it, court it,” and “not with words only, but by measures” (XXVIII.60). If the measures you approve contradict the opinions of the legislators, “make no apology or praise” regarding them but tell the legislators “that a fatal necessity presses [them] upon you” (XXVIII.61).

    Currently, there is one Minister who exemplifies the type of Minister who must never serve in the administration of a constitutional Monarchy: Joseph Fouché. Fouché was Minister of Police from 1799 (during the time of the Directory, just prior to Napoleon’s accession) to 1810, then again in 1815 until his death in 1820. A Jacobin, then a Bonapartist, always a Freemason, he voted to execute Louis XVI, ransacked churches, and actively participated in the Terror, averring that “the blood of criminals fertilizes the soil and establishes power on sure foundations.” An inveterate intriguer (even Napoleon regarded him with caution), he undertook the “White Terror” against supposed enemies of Louis XVIII. “A minister of this sort,” Chateaubriand observes, “can only be ostensibly employed with the mutes of the seraglio of Bajazet or the mutes of the senate of Buonaparte” (XXIX.64). Consideration of Fouché brings Chateaubriand to a critique of the Ministry of Police itself, which he judges incompatible with the constitutional Charter. “If the Charter, which professes to secure individual liberty, is obeyed, the General Police can have neither power or object” because “this General Police is in fact a political Police, a party engine,” its “chief tendency” being “to stifle public opinion,” to “stab…the constitution to the heart” (XXX.65-66), “attack[ing] the first principles of political order” (XXXIII.70). “Unknown under the old regime—incompatible with the new—it is a monster born of anarchy and despotism, and bred in the filth of the revolution” from which Fouché emerged (XXX.66). “What a bitter irony is the word LIBERTY in his mouth, who, at the end of his eulogies on freedom, can arbitrarily and illegally arrest any of his Majesty’s subjects!” (XXXI.67). “Can debates be free in presence of a bashaw who listens to them only to mark the man, whom he may at leisure denounce and strike, if he cannot corrupt?” (XXXI.67). After all, even under the terms of the Charter, if in a national emergency the Charter is suspended, the police have the power to arrest “all the civil and military authorities” (XXXV.74). “Good God! How can we suffer to exist, in the heart of a constitutional Monarchy, such a seraglio of despotism, such a sink of public corruption,” a department “whose nature is to overleap or violate all laws,” headed by a Minister “whose communications with all that is vile and depraved in society tend to blunt every good feeling and inflame every bad; to profit by corruption and thrive by abuses” (XXXV.75). If such a Ministry must exist, put it under the control of the Minister of Justice and the Attorney General—that is, under the rule of law.

    Underlying such Ministerial excesses are the principles and interests of the Revolution, “the falsest doctrines,” “walking hand in hand with irreligion,” entertained by men who “imagine that those who advocate the cause of piety and morals [are] secretly undermining the Charter,” “as if religion and liberty were incompatible” (XXXVIII.81). On the contrary, as Chateaubriand had argued in The Genius of Christianity, “every high and generous public feeling” is “intimately connected with reverence for the principles of justice and of Christianity” (XXXVIII.81). [4] To those secularists who speak of “reaction” while fearing “vengeance,” Chateaubriand replies that all “practical” reaction—i.e., acts of vengeance—must be “repressed”; “but how can they, and why should [the Ministers] endeavor to check moral reaction”? (XXXVIII.82). Such men as Fouché, “who professed the wildest theories of liberty under the Republic,” and then “practiced the most abject baseness under Buonaparte,” can hardly find sincere common cause with advocates of the Charter, since they find in that document “a King whom as republicans they hate, and FREEDOM, which as slaves they abhor” (XXXVIII.82). Such men, and indeed all men under representative government will do well not to act “upon their own vague suspicions and irritable humor” (XXXVIII.83). “The true rule” is “to weigh and measure consequences and facts”; “a statesman should think only of the results” of a proposed measure, because “in politics, if we once stray from the guidance of facts, we shall bewilder ourselves irretrievably “(XXXVIII.83). If a Minister cannot lead, or will not follow the majority, then he must call for the dissolution of the legislature or resign; “it is for him to consider whether he has the courage to risk (even eventually) the safety of the nation in order to keep his place”(XXXIX.85). In the meantime, he should defend his proposals in the legislature: “What higher duty can he have than to attend in Parliament and share in its debates?” (XL.86). 

    Regrettably, the last three ministries under the Restoration regime have committed “the same error,” espousing principles “essentially contradictory to the principle of existing institutions” (XLI.88). In the first Cabinet, Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord served in a Cabinet that was “totally unfit for business”—factitious, eager to rule by unconstitutional executive orders, quick to curb press freedom (XLII.91). In Cabinet “assembled all the survivors of those who have appeared on the stage from 1789 to 1816,” men “dissatisfied with themselves and everybody else,” “clubbing together in one stock of discontent, the vain regrets of imbecility, and the keener remorse of crime” (XLII.92). It was “soon overthrown by a storm which had might have prevented,” the return of Napoleon, “and France was nearly overthrown with it,” as Europe armed against him (XLIII.94). In the second Cabinet, omnipresent and infinitely flexible Talleyrand became Prime Minister. He and his colleagues took advantage of Louis XVIII. “Too long absent from France” in exile, he “did not understand the true state of the national mind” (XLIV.96). His Cabinet members deceived him—Talleyrand in particular being a past master of such tactics—and, admittedly, the King “is perhaps a better judge of business than of men” (XLIV.96). This Cabinet included Chateaubriand’s bête noir, Fouché. “If it were thought that the services of such a man could be useful, he should have been placed behind the curtain; consulted, counseled with in secret,” sparing “the shock which his public appointment gave to loyal feeling and to the dignity of the Monarch” (XLV.98). Predictably, Fouché worked to undermine the regime by isolating the King under the pretense that shadowy forces planned his assassination. “This farce ended I know not how,” but Talleyrand, as usual, landed on his feet, “glad to return to juster principles” in for the remainder of the brief life of the second Cabinet and on into the third (XLVIII.105). As for the Minister of Police, “it is the common affectation of great offenders to bear the tortures of conscience with gaiety,” and so he did (XLIX.108). In a final surge of dissatisfaction, the second Cabinet was vacated.

    After the appointment of the third Cabinet, the legislature “did its duty by the King, whom it adores, and by the people, whose rights its guards,” both “strengthening the hands of the Crown with laws against sedition and “advanc[ing] the interests of the people with election and budget reforms (LI.112). But once again, Cabinet members (again including Talleyrand, now with the title “Grand Chamberlain of France”) sought to rule according to “the principle of revolutionary interests,” as their own slogan has it, alleging that the legislature doesn’t represent public opinion and that the royalists are incapable of governing (LIII.116). The same “system of revolutionary partialities” which “threw us into the danger from which we are but just extricated” will, “if pursued, again lead us into an abyss from which we will find no redemption” (LIV.118). This may happen because too many of their “honest supporters” fail to distinguish the material from the moral interests of the revolutionists (LV.120). They shouldn’t be deprived of property or of political rights, but their “anti-Christian and anti-social doctrines” (i.e., “whatever tends to render indifferent or praiseworthy, treachery, robbery, and injustice”) must be resisted (LV.120). The French must never “confound real and tangible interests with pernicious and destructive theories” (LVI.121). Church properties now controlled by the government should be restored and those lands confiscated from the aristocrats which haven’t been sold to commoners should be restored to their rightful owners. “Woe to the nation whose justice has two sets of weights and measures!” (LVII.123). And the French themselves want no more recurrence to revolution; “far from wishing for revolutionists, we are sick of them” (LX.131). The opinions of Parisians, heard “only in [one’s] own little circle,” should not be mistaken for the opinions of the French generally (LXV.145). On the contrary, in today’s France “every effort ought to be strained to secure the triumph of the principles of legitimate monarchy” (LXIII.138). “Public stations should not be filled with the King’s enemies” (LXX.156). Such “boasted idols of despotic administration” have been “disconcerted, astonished, and, as it were, lost, in a free Government” because they are “unacquainted with religion and justice” (LXXIII.167). And because they are, “they always attempt to apply physical force” (the police power) “to the moral system of things,” their “faculty for evil” now “useless under a moral and regular government” (LXXIII.168).

    There is, Chateaubriand charges, a “secret purpose concealed behind the system of revolutionary interests” (LXXVI.173): regime change, the replacement of Louis XVIII with another, more pliable monarch who accedes to ruling “by the grace of the People,” not heredity, before the Bourbon family “will strike its roots too deeply” to be readily removed (LXXVII.177). The revolutionary faction has for the most part taken “all the offices” in the government, persecuting those it terms “the Ultra-Royalists” (LXXXI.187), hoping “to wear out the friends of the Throne, and to deprive the Crown of its last partisans” (LXXXIII.194). And since “the Altar would support the Throne, its restoration must therefore be prevented” (LXXXIV.196). Religion being “the keystone of legitimate Government,” the Ministry has made sure that no reestablished the Catholic Church “has risen from the grave of the Minister’s portfolio” (LXXXIV.196). And the Ministry has minimized clerical pensions, knowing that “parents will not consign their children to poverty and contempt” (LXXXIV.198). “The physical and material destruction of religion is inevitable in France, if the secret enemies of the State—who are, a little more openly, those of the Church—should, sometimes under one pretext, sometimes under another, succeed in holding the Clergy in the state of humiliation to which they are at present reduced” (LXXXIV.198). This humiliation includes not only keeping them in a condition of penury but bringing some of them up on false charges, putting them “into the dock among prostitutes and thieves” in a parody of Jesus’ mingling with publicans and sinners (LXXXIV.200). The revolutionists, whether republican or Bonapartist, “who have caused our misfortunes and still meditate our ruin,” “detest Religion because they have persecuted it, because its eternal wisdom and divine morality are in opposition with their vain wisdom and the corruption of their hearts”; “we are again returned to sophistry, the sneers and the injustice of 1789” (LXXXIV.200-201). If this campaign continues, “I do not fear to predict that the wish of Mr. Philosopher Diderot”—that he hoped to see “the last King strangled by a rope made of the bowels of the last Priest”—will “yet be accomplished” (LXXXIV.202).

    The revolutionaries have even appealed to foreign powers for support, offering the French crown “to whoever would accept it”—on the terms of the revolutionaries’ principle of popular sovereignty (LXXXVI.212). That is, the same revolutionaries who had threatened the European monarchies, first under the Republic, then under Bonaparte, now sought their endorsement under principles fatal to those very monarchies. “The French Revolution which we had hoped was passed is but the prologue of a more dreadful tragedy: if Christianity be in danger, it cannot be denied, that Europe is thereby menaced with a general convulsion” (LXXXVI.215).

    In a nod to modern social contract theory, Chateaubriand concedes that “society in its early stages may have been formed by a congregation of men, uniting their interests and passions; but it has been polished and improved only in proportion as these interests and passions have gradually been regulated by religion, morality, and justice” (LXXXVIII.220). Crucially, “no revolution has ever been terminated, but by a recurrence to these three fundamental principles of all human society” and “no political change has ever been consolidated and established, but by being founded on the state of things which it replaced” (LXXXVIII.220). So, for example, when ancient Rome changed its regime from a monarchy to a republic, “the Gods remained in the Capitol,” and when Charles II of England “re-ascended the throne of his ancestors, religion recovered its strength” and Parliament “preserved the political rights it had acquired” under the Cromwell regime (LXXXVIII.220). “This is what we have not chosen to do,” and as a consequence “the legitimate monarchy” faces the threat of “new misfortunes” (LXXXVIII.221). It can be “saved only by preserving and maintaining the political results of the Revolution, which have been consecrated by the Charter” while putting “a final stop to the Revolution itself” by realigning Church and State “for their mutual dignity and safety” (LXXXIX.222). Such a realignment would win clerical support for the Charter, strengthening its favor among the majority of the French, who are Catholics who deny that liberty means atheist license. “It is proved by the example of England that the existence of an endowed Clergy is not incompatible with that of a constitutional Government” (XC.225). More, “in proportion as the Church shall acquire property, the assistance which the State is obliged to provide will be diminished” and “the Clergy will at the same time resume the dignity which arises from independence” (XC.226-227). Additionally, the Church should keep the parish registers, bringing citizens into the world with the baptism that betokens their membership first in the Kingdom of God, prior to membership in the country of France—a sign that “the first duties of man are the duties of Religion and that these include all the others” (XC.227). Public education also should be restored to the Church and Bishops should sit with the aristocrats in the Chamber of Peers, as they do in the British House of Lords. “I have no doubt that the Clergy—connected with the soil of France by the property of the Church—taking an active part in our civil and political institutions—would at the same time form a class of citizens as devoted to the Charter as ourselves,” bringing with them “a salutary influence,” healing “the wounds of the Revolution, appeas[ing] the agitations of men’s minds, correct[ing] morals, reestablish[ing] the principles of order and justice, preach[ing] salvation, and finally reviv[ing] the spirit of religion which is the cement of social life, and of morality, which gives consistency to Political Institutions” (XC.228-229).

    In sum, religion is not bigotry, nor does it harbor “a secret enmity against philosophy” (XC.230). Chateaubriand’s slogan is “King, Religion, and Liberty” (XC.231). For their part, the politically restored aristocracy can “introduce into our new state of society that tradition of ancient honor, that delicacy of sentiment, that contempt of fortune, that generous spirit, that faith, that fidelity which we so much need, and which are the distinctive virtues of a gentleman, and the most necessary ornaments of a state” (XCI.232). There need not be jealousy between “what we formerly called noble and bourgeois” (XCI.233). As for republicanism, “liberty is not new to the French Nobility,” men who “never did acknowledge in our Kings any absolute power but over their hearts and their swords” (XCI.234). Under the Ancien Regime, aristocrats had nothing serious to do. Brought to Versailles under the supervision of the monarchs and their police, they became “triflers by profession, endured rather than desired,” living lives “unworthy of the dignity of manhood” (XCII.237). “Let men of honor be no longer made dependent on knaves”; “such is the natural order of morality and justice” (XCII.238). [5]

    Modernity’s statist bureaucracy is here to stay. Bonaparte had accustomed the French to an active government; by now, they “will not know how to walk alone” (XCII.241). For that reason, the King should pay “a more ostentatious attention to commerce, agriculture, literature and arts” and design “great public works” to award “brilliant distinctions to successful talents” in order to rechannel ambition away from revolution and toward the enhancement of civil life (XCII.241). [6] Then, “the radiant and innocent triumphs of peace would obliterate from [the people’s] memories and affections the guilty intoxication of anarchy and the bloody enthusiasm of war” (XCII.242). “Religion, the base of all well-ordered society, the Charter, honorable men, the political things of the Revolution but not the political men of the Revolution—such, in one sentence, is my system” (XCII.242-243). 

    Chateaubriand’s intervention into the politics of his profoundly wounded country may initially seem remote to the concerns of human beings more than two centuries later. But is not the serious consideration of the aftermath of war and revolution a perennially important task?

     

    Notes

    1. For a similar observation, more than a century later, see Charles de Gaulle: Speech at Bayeux, June 16, 1946.
    2. As seen in de Gaulle’s Fifth Republic with the efforts of Minister of Culture André Malraux, another admiring and careful reader of le Vicomte. See Will Morrisey: Cultural Founding in Modernity (Lanham: University Press of America, 1984). See also “Malraux and de Gaulle: Can Democracy Be Cultural?” on this website under the category, “Manners and Morals.”
    3. “He is the head, or visible prelate, of the Gallican church” (XII.25).
    4. For a review of Chateaubriand’s earlier book, see “Chateaubriand’s Defense of Christianity,” on this website under “Bible Notes.”
    5. This is Tocqueville’s argument, set down two decades later in Democracy in America.
    6. In different circumstances, this was the policy of Charles de Gaulle after his founding of the Fifth Republic, in collaboration with his Minister of Culture, André Malraux. See Will Morrisey: Reflections on de Gaulle: Political Founding in Modernity, Second Edition (Lanham: University Press of America, 1996).

     

     

    Filed Under: Nations

    The Second World War: Decisions of Statesmen

    July 23, 2025 by Will Morrisey

    Ian Kershaw: Fateful Choices: Ten Decisions That Changed the World, 1940-41. New York: The Penguin Press 2007.

     

    Kershaw calls the Second World War “the defining period” of the twentieth century because its consequences enduring longer than those of the First World War. They included the Cold War between the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the end of the British Empire, the rise of Communist China in the wake of Japan’s defeat, the transformation of Germany and Japan into economic but not military powerhouses, and the mass murder of eleven million Europeans, six million of them Jews, leading to the founding of modern Israel and, with that, the transformation of Middle East geopolitics. Those consequences arose from ten decisions made “by the leaders of Germany, Great Britain, the Soviet Union, the United States, Japan and Italy” operating in “very different” regimes with “different decision-making processes.” Kershaw wants to understand the influences on the statesmen in question, the extent to which their decisions were “pre-formed by government bureaucracies or shaped by competing power-groups within the ruling elites,” how rational and how freely made those decisions were and, conversely, how and to what extent the statesmen ‘influenced’ their regimes. Or were their decisions largely determined by “external and impersonal forces?” And, finally, did their “room for maneuver” narrow during that early year of the war?

    He begins with the decision of the British Cabinet to fight instead of negotiating with the Nazis. Although ‘appeasement’ became synonymous with weakness and pusillanimity in the decades after the Allied victory, it was “widely popular in Britain” at the time. The 1930s had seen Great Britain weakened by the Great Depression, restiveness within its extensive empire, and the expense of rearmament. Economically, it lost its financial preeminence to the United States; its industrial might and trade surpluses declined. Along with the other commercial republics, it faced regime rivals throughout the world—rivals intent on “challenging and ‘revising’ (or overthrowing) the international order” established in the aftermath of the Great War. In Asia, confronting the formidable Japanese navy (Japan itself being a sort of geographical counterpart of Britain, an island off the coast of a continent or, if you will, off the opposite coast of Mackinder’s ‘World Island’), Chancellor of the Exchequer Neville Chamberlain asserted that good relations with Japan mattered more to his country than good relations with the U.S., China, or the League of Nations. And when at the same time the Nazis founded their regime in Germany, that country became “the wildest card in the European pack,” challenging Britain’s policy of disarmament, Britons generally clung to wishful thinking, although Germany’s open defiance of the Versailles Treaty’s strictures against rearmament, which it formally rejected in 1935, doubts arose. When British rearmament began three years later, no one expected military readiness to be achieved until 1942, at the earliest. As Germany and Italy began their campaigns to seize territory, the British had nothing but verbal rejoinders to offer. Now Prime Minister, Chamberlain thought “buying Hitler off” by refusing to challenge his nationalist claims in the Rhineland and Czechoslovakia “a price well worth paying.” Famously, Winston Churchill did not, but those were his ‘wilderness years.’ When Churchill urged an anti-fascist alliance with France and the Soviet Union, Hitler beat him to the punch diplomatically with his 1939 pact with Stalin and militarily with his Blitzkrieg conquest of Belgium, the Netherlands, and France in 1940. This brought Churchill to the prime ministership, over the opposition of Chamberlain and the royal family, and many in his own Conservative Party, who judged him deficient in “political judgment.” 

    As British forces fled France in May 1940, Hitler missed his chance to kill them with his advancing army, relying instead on his air force, which failed. Churchill saw his only hope in “dragging the Americans in” to the war, but President Roosevelt, confronted with public opinion still opposed to another military venture in Europe, demurred politely, instead recommended that Britain withdraw its fleet to North America, for safe keeping. But Churchill regarded any European settlement which left Germany in control of the Continent as likely fatal to his country. At a minimum, he needed first to convince Hitler that he couldn’t defeat Britain. Over the opposition of his Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, who imagined that Hitler might fall victim to political infighting, and who “had been unable to stomach” Churchill’s preference “to go down fighting” rather than surrender, Churchill argued that it “was impossible to imagine that Herr Hitler would be so foolish as to let us continue our re-armament” as a condition of a truce. “His terms would put us completely at his mercy.” Looking back, Kershaw concurs: “No terms which Hitler was likely to offer Britain would be acceptable.” And it is likely that another precondition for a deal would have been the removal of Churchill from office, probably to be substituted by David Lloyd George, whom Hitler admired and who admired Hitler; “he would most probably have been acceptable to Hitler as the British equivalent of Marshal Philippe Pétain at the head of a Vichy-style government.” In the event, however, the realistic prospect of being able to continue the fight, not to die choking in blood, suddenly appeared with the rescue of “practically the whole of the British Army” from northern France in the ‘Miracle of Dunkirk.’ 

    Kershaw finds it “striking” that, in a parliamentary republic, so few persons deliberated on this crucial decision and indeed how few “had any inkling of what was at stake”: “Only the highest level of officialdom within the Cabinet and Foreign Office was aware of what was happening.” The old aristocratic character of the British regime lived on, at least in the realm of foreign policy. Was aristocrat Churchill rational in making his decision, or utterly irrational, as aristocratic Halifax supposed? Kershaw writes that Churchill won the intra-Cabinet debate “because he had the better arguments.”

    The consequence of Churchill’s Cabinet’s decision to fight was a two-front war for Germany—exactly what the Germans had attempted, and failed, to prevent in the First World War. “With western Europe secured and any threat from the United States a distant one, Hitler would have been able to turn his full attention to fighting the war for ‘living space’ against the Soviet Union, but now with British backing.” Hitler correctly saw that “time was not on Germany’s side,” that “Germany had to remove Britain from the war before the Americans were ready and willing to enter it.” But now he had his own decision to make. This is the second statesman’s decision Kershaw addresses.

    Hitler saw that Britain needed such a two-front war, needed the Soviets as an ally. “With Russia smashed, Britain’s last hope would be shattered.” Therefore, crush the Soviet Union by attacking in spring of 1941, in time to avoid the hardships of the Russian winter. This was Hitler’s “most fateful choice of the Second World War,” triggering “the bloodiest conflict in history” so far, “cost[ing] the lives of over thirty million Soviet and German citizens” (more accurately, subjects). Hitler had precedent on his side, as Germany had seized Belorussia and Ukraine in the First World War, with the Bolsheviks solemnizing those gains in the 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. He aimed not merely at establishing a line of “buffer states” in eastern Europe but at regime change there, as General Ludendorff had planned for the Baltic states when it still seemed that Germany would win the earlier war. Hitler also had a financial worry. His rearmament had been “undertaken at reckless cost to state finances”; “guns and butter were possible only for a limited time,” as “an overstretched and overheated economy could not be indefinitely sustained.”

    If British foreign policy was governed by a few, German foreign policy was governed by one. As Kershaw gently puts it, “Hitler disliked the potential check to his authority posed by any collective body.” This included his Cabinet, which had stopped meeting by 1938. Since no man can literally rule alone, Hitler established institutions staffed by Nazi Party men; as an added precaution, he allowed the original government institutions to remain, thus setting up “competing agencies” acting within “administrative anarchy,” ensuring that “Hitler’s position was supreme.” Whenever a crucial decision needed to be made, he was the only man he could make it. 

    His decision had not only a regime component but, as always with Hitler, a malignant ideological one. “Through an attack on the Soviet Union he would destroy the power of the Jews,” he reckoned, “embodied in his worldview by the Bolshevik regime, and at the same time gain ‘living space’ for German settlement.” The ensuing “racially purified empire…would be equipped eventually to challenge the United States for world domination,” especially since it would give Japan a free hand in the Far East, “tying down the United States in the Pacific and deterring her involvement in the Atlantic and in Europe.” That is, Hitler would relieve himself of a two-front war while eventually waging one on the Americans. Thus, while the timing of the attack on the Soviet Union was “military-strategic,” the purpose was regime-ideological.  The conquest of Ukraine and Russia would provide Germans with a rich supply of grain, saving the German economy from exhaustion and providing nourishment for future expansion. In the event, both Hitler and his army officers “grossly underestimated the Red Army,” probably basing their assessment of its very recent poor performance against Finland. Meanwhile, the German naval officers targeted, first, the British Royal Navy and then the U.S. Navy “in the contest for world domination.” “The maritime and Continental alternatives” to German imperialism “could easily stand alongside each other in the prewar years,” with the army pointed east and the navy expecting to use the coasts of France, Belgium, Norway, and Denmark as a launch pad for conquests in Africa. Hitler prioritized: eastern Europe first, Africa second, the Americas third. He briefly considered the plan conceived by Admiral Gerhard Wagner: capture Gibraltar from the British “with Spanish support”; push through north Africa toward the Suez Canal, controlled at the time by the British; then gain access to raw materials in Egypt and the other Arab countries, along with Sudan. This, Wagner remarked, would sever Britain’s best routes to the Indian Ocean and to the jewel of its imperial crown. But without firm Spanish and Italian support (each had its own imperialist agenda, and they contradicted one another), Hitler came to prefer his original ‘drive to the East.’ How rational? Although Herr Hitler might well be described as having occupied the opposite end of the ‘decisiveness’ scale from Prince Hamlet, his too “was madness, but there was method in it.” 

    Given the European and American presence in China, Japan’s 1937 invasion of continental Asia had worldwide implications. These were realized in 1940, when “Hitler’s astonishing military triumphs in western Europe” gave Japanese statesmen and military officers the opportunity to move into southeastern Asia, where the British, French, and Dutch colonial possession now seemed much more vulnerable. The Japanese decision “led eventually to blending the two separate wars in Europe and in China into one huge global conflagration.”

    Ten years earlier, the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, then controlled by China, had “not only marked a turning point in international relations in the Far East but also signaled the changing basis of power within Japan”—a regime change. As far back as the late nineteenth century, the Meiji dynasty, “undergoing rapid modernization, accommodating western methods to Japanese culture,” intended to drive the Western empires out of east Asia and to build its own empire. In 1915, Japan demanded that the Chinese accept joint police forces on the mainland and the presence of Japanese “advisers” in political, economic, and military matters, which would have “effectively reduced” China “to the status of a Japanese colony.” In 1917, the United States agreed to recognize Japan’s “special interests” in China in exchange for Japanese acceptance of America’s “Open Door” policy, whereby all nations could enjoy equal access to Chinese trading ports. Chinese resistance to Japan and international displeasure with its actions there culminated in a nine-nation treaty that asserted China’s sovereignty, which Japan signed and honored throughout the 1920s. By the end of the decade, however, such internationalist sentiments weakened in response to the financial crisis; young, middle-level army officers became restive, and the civilian authorities lacked control over them. When some of those officers ordered an attack on Chinese forces in Manchuria in 1931, “the League of Nations failed its first major test,” imposing no sanctions—an “early manifestation of the weakness that was soon to be fully exposed both in Asia and in Europe.”

    The Japanese parliamentary republic dissolved in May 1932; Japan, now under military control, tempered somewhat by the longstanding oligarchic families, left the League of Nation the next year. The Emperor’s seemingly absolute power wasn’t absolute at all, although his blessing on a proposed policy formally legitimated it. By 1940, “a new nationalism had been forged that bears more than a passing resemblance, though in Japanese cultural guise, to contemporary European fascisms. Its ‘spiritual’ focus was the Emperor, as an embodiment of the Japanese nation,” but “its vehicle was militarism.” Japanese nationalism, called the kodo or “imperial way,” “envisaged a Japan returning to the ‘true values’ of the nation’s long (and legendary) history, overcoming the subjugation to western influence and realizing her destiny and mission, as a superior people and culture, to dominate east Asia.” Propaganda duly transmitted this ideology to the people, and it included a sharp critique of what one Japanese statesman called the “democracy and humanitarianism” of Anglo-Americans, a mere “mask for their own self-interest.” Japan, he continued, “which is small resource-poor, and unable to consume all her own industrial products, would have no resort but to destroy the status quo for the sake of preservation, just like Germany.” Territorial and resource redistribution must occur, both in Asia and in Europe, under what another Japanese statesman called “the new world order” including a “New Order” in Asia.

    With the League of Nations powers exhibiting no real power in the region, this left the Soviet Union as the principal worry of the new regime. Japan joined the Anti-Comintern Pact late in 1936, each country guaranteeing that if it fought a war against the USSR, the other partners would provide no aid to the Russian Communists. The Japanese then attacked China, and while “the orgy of killing and rape” in Nanking “shocked the world,” the West did nothing more than condemn it. By 1938, however, the Chinese government under Chiang Kai-Shek had retreated, consolidating in western China. “It was now stalemate.” Still eager to extend its empire, Japan seized islands off southern China and fought Soviet troops on the border with Outer Mongolia. The August 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact stunned Tokyo by removing a potential ally. Recalculating, the Japanese military regime expected a Europe ruled not by commercial republics but by Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union. Seeing that a European war might provoke an Anglo-American alliance, some wanted to reach out to the U.S., but America’s strong support of Chiang Kai-Shek made such an overture unlikely to succeed. No matter. As Foreign Minister Matsuoka Yosuka averred, “In the battle between democracy and totalitarianism the latter adversary will without question win and will control the world. The era of democracy is finished and the democratic system bankrupt.” War between Japan and the United States was nothing less than a “historical inevitability.” 

    That being so, the regime designed contingency plans for a blitzkrieg attack on the Dutch East Indies via air bases to be constructed in Indochina and Thailand—plans that only became feasible when the Nazis began their rampage in Europe. In Asia now, “wherever diplomacy failed…armed strength would be deployed, if circumstances demanded it.” Circumstances did not favor a long war with the United States, but “a decisive blow” in a short war would work, military planners believed, especially if Great Britain were tied down in Europe against Japan’s allies there, the signatories to the September 1940 Tripartite Pact. The Japanese Navy General Staff expected to be ready for war with the United States by spring of 1941. 

    The American response to the Pact upended this expectation. Far from intimidating the Americans, the Tripartite Pact “merely confirmed American views that Japan was a belligerent, bullying, imperialist force in the Far East, an Asian equivalent of Nazi Germany, and had to be stopped.” The Pact proved to be not a deterrent but a provocation. While the Roosevelt Administration decided against imposing an oil embargo on Japan immediately after Pact was signed, “it was becoming increasingly evident that only a trial of strength would decide control over southeast Asia.” For Japanese planners, circumstances strongly indicated ‘Now or never.’ To settle with the U.S. would have meant an unacceptable capitulation regarding Japanese occupation of eastern China.

    Italy’s Benito Mussolini and his Fascist Party had seized power in 1922. Initially, he had fairly good relations with the United States and Great Britain, especially since his imperial ambitions were hemmed in by Italy’s war debts. He did conquer Abyssinia in 1935—no great achievement, but one that boosted the esteem Italians felt for him. He also moved closer to the Nazis, supporting Germany’s remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 and accepting the Anschluss two years later. He fretted that Italians “were too peace-loving, far from ready for war” and imagined that he had a promise from Hitler not to start Germany’s planned war until 1943. He also understood that his own power over Italians and the Italian state was not as absolute as Hitler’s power over Germany. His Foreign Minister, son-in-law Galeazzo Ciano, distrusted Hitler; the military officers had been reluctant to strike against Abyssinia. They saw that Italy was not militarily ready when Great Britain and France declared war on Germany in 1939. Mussolini himself saw no alternative to allying with the Nazis, fearing that trying to stay out would only bring Hitler’s fury against his country. His colleagues were not nearly so sure. “Had the German victory over France been less conclusive, it is even imaginable that intervention could have been postponed.” Kershaw thinks that “with clever diplomacy, Italy could have continued to play off each side against the other, retaining the advantages of neutrality.” But Germany’s rapid crushing of French defenses convinced Mussolini to enter the war “against the plutocratic and reactionary democracies of the West”—Mussolini was, after all, a kind of socialist—which “have repeatedly blocked the march and even threatened the existence of the Italian people,” confining it to the Mediterranean. To Mussolini and now to his colleagues, “it looked a safe bet that Italy would profit hugely and cheaply from the astonishing victories of the Wehrmacht in western Europe,” even if “Mussolini smarted under his relegation to the status of a second-rank dictatory”—he, the most senior Fascist!

    And so, in October 1940 he chose to satisfy Italian ambitions in the Balkans by invading Greece, “a calamitous folly,” the “first defeat for the seemingly invincible Axis forces.” Worse still, the campaign against Greece diverted Italian forces from the main geopolitical prize in the eastern Mediterranean: Egypt, with its Suez Canal, where “weak British forces” might have been driven out. Had they been, “the war might have taken a different course.” And the Fascists’ power in Italy, which had peaked with the triumph in Abyssinia, would not have waned so soon. Mussolini’s hope at the time was that the Germans, preoccupied with the Battle of Britain, would leave him with a free hand in Egypt. None of it worked, thanks to his “underestimation of the Greeks,” who fought with “bravery and tenacity.” The Greek war bogged down the Italians in the Balkans as much as the British had frustrated the Germans in the skies over the English Channel. “Within six weeks, the would-be world power, Italy, had shown herself to be militarily weaker than the flyweight force of Greece.” A successful British torpedo attack on the Italian fleet anchored at Taranto left half of Mussolini’s warships at the bottom of the harbor. “Fascist dreams of empire sank along with them.” Hitler agreed: “the pointless campaign in Greece compelled us, contrary to all our plans, to intervene in the Balkans”—he ordered his own troops into Greece in April 1941—and “that in its turn led to a catastrophic delay in the launching of our attack on Russia.” Kershaw doesn’t go that far, judging that Operation Barbarossa would have failed no matter when it was started. But Italy’s defeat did severely damage Axis chances for victory in north Africa. In sum, “the imbecility of Mussolini’s decision reflected the dictator’s severe personal shortcoming” and “the imbecility of a political system” that was too weak to prevent his folly.

    In fall 1940, near the end of his unprecedented and successful third presidential campaign, President Franklin Roosevelt promised, “Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign war.” Well, not right away. He preferred incrementalism, which meant that no step he took toward intervention could not be reversed. His most important decision was his support for the Lend-Lease bill, which “open[ed] up America’s vast material resources to Britain’s struggling war effort at no direct financial cost” while clearly taking its side. His reluctance was understandable, given Americans’ opposition to entry into another European war in which 50,000 American soldiers and sailors died. In the war’s aftermath, many Americans concluded that “America had been inveigled into involvement by foreign financiers, bankers and arms manufacturers who stood to profit from an Allied victory.” Roosevelt himself had supported neutrality legislation in the mid-1930s and reduced the size of the Army. “It is always best and safest to count on nothing from the Americans but words,” Britain’s Neville Chamberlain sniffed. It was the peace treaty Chamberlain brought back from Munich in 1938 that spurred Roosevelt into action, however, cautious though that action was, initially. He ordered U.S. rearmament and attempted, without success, to repeal the arms embargo on the European republics Congress had enacted. For his part, Hitler understandably discounted the possibility of American intervention, scorning FDR’s offer of negotiations “to settle disarmament and trade” if Germany and Italy would promise not to attack some thirty countries for the next ten years. Hitler instead signed a non-aggression pact with Stalin, guaranteeing the Nazis a free hand to assault on France and Britain. 

    In September 1940, FDR reaffirmed his promise that the United States would support the democracies by taking measures “short of war,” while taking care to quadruple the size of the Army and to prepare defenses along the Atlantic coast against German submarines. Ever the master of words, he now argued for the repeal of the Neutrality Act on the grounds that “true neutrality” as to stop treating aggressors and victims alike. The fact was that the United States at this time lacked either the military or logistical capability to do much against the Germans. The United States had only 1,350 airplanes and could spare none for the French. The U.S. army ranked twentieth among the nations of the world, “one place behind the Dutch”—five well-equipped divisions against the 141 divisions the Germans had on the western front. And what good would American aid do, anyway, if the British were defeated and the Germans seized the American supplies?

    FDR surrounded himself with solid Cabinet officers and military officers. Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson, “a man of firm principles based upon moral rectitude and commitment to the law,” who “detested Nazism to the core,” and respected only Winston Churchill among the European republicans, “brought a much needed dynamism” to the rearmament campaign. He worked well with Army Chief of Staff George Marshall, who went directly to the president in May 1940 to urge a substantial buildup. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau was also a hawk, although Secretary of State Cordell Hull remained more cautious, still hoping to negotiate, as State Department officials usually do. Congress continued to lean toward isolationism, reflecting Americans’ pessimistic assessment of Allied chances in the war. Marshall, the strong advocate of rearmament, wanted nothing to do with military aid to Britain, worrying that this would weaken American self-defense. 

    But public opinion began to shift. “The fall of France and the imminent threat to Great Britain sharpened awareness of the menace to the United States from German domination of the Atlantic” even in the Midwest, far from the more vulnerable Atlantic coast. When Italy entered the war in June 1940, FDR announced, and Americans supported, sending more materiel to Britain, even while seeing “where this might lead.” “There was now massive support, teaching even into previously hardcore isolationist circles, for rapid and wholesale rearmament.” Roosevelt could say, publicly, that the British navy was the only force capable of blocking the German navy; therefore, the loan of American destroyers to the British was crucial. Churchill weighed in: “Mr. President, with great respect I must tell you that in the long history of the world this is a thing to do now.” FDR brought Congress on board by his proposal to lease British territories in the New World for American use while lending the destroyers. 

    In themselves, the destroyers didn’t amount to much, militarily. They were World War I vintage ships. Hitler was not impressed. But what the deal accomplished wasn’t so much a contribution to the balance of power. It rather showed the American public that their country had “effectively abandoned neutrality” and that their hearts went with that abandonment. There was a serious legal problem, however. The Johnson Act of 1934 prohibited U.S. loans to nations in default on their World War I loans, as Britain was. Only cash-and-carry deals were legal. FDR solved the problem by loaning arms to the Brits to be repaid in kind after the war; no money was advanced by the U.S. or owed by Great Britain. Lend-Lease passed Congress in March 1941, to Churchill’s relief and delight. As for Germany, the military chiefs “interpreted it as ‘a declaration of war'” and Hitler extended the north Atlantic combat zone to the waters of Greenland. Yet Roosevelt could still maintain to the American public that he had stopped short of war, which he had. He continued “to mold opinion without outpacing it,” inasmuch as eighty percent of Americans opposed sending troops to Europe. He also knew that Hitler intended to attack the Soviet Union in violation of the Nazi-Soviet Pact, and this would mean that “new prospects would open up” in western Europe. Meanwhile, “there was widespread backing for a policy of maximum aid to Britain short of war, in America’s own interest.” In the republican regime, public opinion and the separation of government powers evidently hampers quick decisions while supporting the ones that are carefully and patiently justified.

    In the Soviet Union, it is safe to say, Josef Stalin didn’t run a republican regime. He had long abandoned the Leninist oligarchy of “collective leadership,” in which the CCP boss ruled as first among not-quite-equals. He still had nominal opposition as late as 1929—persons who received firm instruction on exactly how nominal they were during the Great Terror. In 1937-38, Stalin “sought to wipe the slate clean of those whose experiences of the ‘glory days’ under Lenin might have stood in the way of his own claim to be his sole and legitimate heir.” The purges eliminated 44,000 CCP members, along with 700,000 others; another 1.5 million were arrested and tossed into the Gulag. The work was undertaken by the People’s Commissariat for Internal Affairs or NKVD, the secret police force answerable to Stalin alone. Stalin loyalists replaced the missing, but in the army, where some semblance of competence was more urgently needed, quick replacement proved impossible. “Of the 101 members of the supreme military leadership, 91 were arrested, and of these 80 shot” on “absurd, trumped-up charges of anti-Soviet activity,” in what Kershaw calls the “decapitation of the Red Army.” They included Stalin’s best general, Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky. By 1941, seventy-five percent of field officers and seventy percent of political commissars had held their posts for less than a year. Terror was not only a method of purging the ranks of Party and Army but a method of ruling the survivors. Extraordinarily enough, this was done in part to prepare the Soviet Union for the war Stalin expected. For his part, Hitler “thought Stalin must be mad,” a fascinating judgment when one considers the source.

    But the primary war Stalin expected was one between the ‘capitalist’ empires, battling for the world’s material resources. Just as in World War I, he supposed, the world Communism generally and the Soviet Union in particular would reap the benefits of capitalism’s self-destruction. The main task for the Soviet regime, to strengthen itself under the slogan ‘Socialism in One Country,’ required exactly the kind of ideological purification Stalin undertook with the Terror. At the same time, he undertook a foreign policy of “peaceful coexistence” with foreign governments—to be sure, continuing to finance Communist parties, with numerous ‘underground’ operative, providing intelligence, generating propaganda, and preparing to move against those regimes if the opportunity arose. In this scheme, Germany held a central place, quite literally in the center of Europe. It was the Soviet Union’s “most important commercial partner,” providing Stalin with nearly half of his imports; it had a strong Communist Party; after a few years of estrangement following Hitler’s accession to power, the Nazi-Soviet Pact of 1939 registered what Stalin considered the impotence of the League of Nations and of the commercial republics generally. He suspected that the statesmen of those regimes intended to escape war with Hitler by fomenting war between Germany and the Soviet Union and, after testing Britain and France by offering them a treaty and noting their lack of interest, he beckoned Hitler. Whatever Hitler’s immediate intentions toward the Soviets might have been (and Stalin knew they were hostile, in principle and therefore in the long run), Stalin knew he needed “to stay neutral and save our strength.” He believed he had three years. As it turned out, it was only two. In the interim, he could and did move against Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, although “Finland proved…a step too far,” as the 200,000 Soviet battlefield dead attested. 

    France’s sudden collapse forced him to revise his strategy. He accelerated his rearmament program, subjected his workers “to even more draconian labor discipline,” and even rehabilitated some of the military officers he’d consigned to his prisons. He formally annexed the Baltic states and hoped to extend Soviet power into the Balkans, a prospect Hitler crushed by the simple expedient of seizing Romania. Meanwhile, he received a report from Marshal S. K. Timoshenko, who wrote that “no operational war plan is available; an operational total plan or partial plans do not exist.” His army even lacked a sufficient number of maps. Since “the failings could not be put right immediately,” “it was crucial to avoid any provocation that might give Hitler a pretext for attack.” Like many in the republics, Stalin became an appeaser, although not in his case animated by any love of peace. The problem, of course, was that Hitler needed no pretext to attack anyone, given his powers of propagandistic invention. 

    Since the 1920s, Soviet military strategy had been based on the idea of “deep operations”—that is, absorbing an enemy offensive and then counterattacking, in imitation of Russia’s war against Napoleon, more than a century earlier. Nazi surprise and blitzkrieg called this strategy into question, or should have done, but the Soviets didn’t much alter their plan. Soviet planners also assumed that Germany would attack through Ukraine, if they attacked, but Stalin believed that Hitler wouldn’t risk a two-front war. The German conquest of Greece and the rest of the Balkans should have put both of these assumptions into question, yet Stalin stubbornly began to disbelieve all information that contradicted his wishful thinking. While he received reports to the contrary from reliable agents who had obtained access to Germany’s secret plans, he chose to brush them aside. He “stuck to his policy of non-provocation and playing for time,” remaining “unshaken in his conviction that the Germans would not invade until they had attained victory or a compromise settlement in the west.” He imagined he had ‘history’ on his side, since the two-front war had ruined the Germans in 1917-18. Even when Hitler launched his attack, he expected the Red Army to “inflict a crushing defeat on the German invaders.” When that didn’t happen, he began to hope that territorial concessions might buy Hitler off. And although the Red Army, aided by General Winter, did stop the Wehrmacht as it approached Moscow in December 1941, beginning a grinding military turnaround, “the cost of Stalin’s decision” was “colossal”—twenty-five million of his subjects killed.

    This was a regime failure. “The failings were those of a system of highly personalized rule,” a “system where reason had lost its way,” and more than that (pace Kershaw), a system of Marxist ideological rule, assured that ‘history’ must be on its side. Another way of saying it is that reason lost its way because Marxian dialectic, supposedly a feature of scientific verity, causes reason to lose its way by giving the human mind the illusions provided by a comprehensive system of pseudo-reasoning.

    In the United States, Roosevelt could take heart that Germany had embroiled itself in a two-front war. However, he could not know if the Soviets could hold out. His military brass expected Hitler to win, quickly, then return his attentions to Great Britain, the last European rival. Roosevelt faced renewed opposition from the isolationists, who hoped that the Nazis and the Bolsheviks would kill each other off, making American intervention unnecessary. And what would Japan do? Aid the Germans by attacking the Soviet Union? Or continue pushing into the south Pacific, attacking American interests? “I simply have not got enough Navy to go round,” he lamented. He chose to step up aid to Britain, while refraining from direct intervention. Aid required shipping; shipping could be attacked by German submarines (as in the First World War); such attacks could draw America into the war (as they did in the First World War). His policy of taking “all measures in the fight against Hitler ‘short of war” had “now come to mean ‘undeclared war,’ even to the extent of armed clashes in the Atlantic which, despite the state of non-belligerency that technically prevailed in American-German relations, threatened to explode into all-out conflict.”

    FDR dispatched his former Secretary of Commerce, now trusted White House aide Harry Hopkins to Moscow, where Stalin requested military equipment and American military intervention against Hitler. He would even “welcome American troops on any part of the Russian front and entirely under American control.” He recognized that “Hitler’s army would finally be crushed only once the United States had entered the fray,” an opinion shared by Roosevelt’s military advisers. The Americans estimated that Germany’s unconditional surrender would require five million troops on the ground in Europe. The president took Germany to be a far greater threat to the U.S. than the Soviet Union could be; in this, he retained the optimism of the ‘Popular Front’ days of the mid-1930s. 

    Accordingly, he sent U.S. soldiers to Iceland in July 1941, a move that met with public approval. He expanded the Selective Service Act in the same month by extending their terms of any future draftees and allowing them to be used outside of the Western Hemisphere. Without this legislation, “the attack on Pearl Harbor, four months later, would have struck a country with its army in a process of dissolution.” In geopolitical terms, he worried about Nazi agents “penetrating the bulge of Arrica and opening the way for Hitler to make a quick strike through the Iberian Peninsula into north Africa,” where it was a “relatively short distance across the Atlantic…to Brazil”—the “simplest way for German troops to establish a footing on the American continent.” This never happened, and in his August 1941 summit conference with Churchill in Placentia Bay, near Newfoundland, he began to see “the eastern front as the key to the outcome of the war.” 

    When a German submarine attacked the USS Greer, an American destroyer, in the north Atlantic, this gave FDR “an opportunity of the kind he had awaited.” Turning to the medium he had mastered, the radio, he charged that this attack was part of a German plan “to acquire absolute control of the seas as a prelude to domination of the western hemisphere by force of arms,” a prospect the isolationists had long denied. “When you see a rattlesnake poised to strike,” he told his audience, “you do not wait until he has struck before you crush him. These Nazi submarines and raiders are the rattlesnakes of the Atlantic.” He thereby justified the use of military escorts for convoys in the Atlantic with orders to shoot on sight. The justification wasn’t really justified by the facts of the case, as the Greer had in fact harassed the German submarine, provoking its commander to fire first. And “although Roosevelt could not know it, Hitler had given express orders forbidding provocation in the Atlantic while he had his hands full in the east.” But Kershaw approves, citing “the long-term threat posed by Hitler’s regime.” “As Roosevelt had seen all along, the defense interests of the United States would be irreparably damaged if Britain were to be forced to capitulate or to negotiate an unfavorable settlement, leaving Hitler in charge of the European continent and dominating the Atlantic.”

    When another attack on a U.S. ship occurred in October, Roosevelt gave another “fiery address,” in which he placed before the American people an “absolute choice in a future world between American freedom and Nazi tyranny,” a regime which therefore must be destroyed. He came close to announcing a request to Congress for a declaration of war but, ever the master of political timing, he held off, as “the United States was still not ready for war,” either materially or in spirit. “The longer America could remain out of the formal combat, the more advanced her military buildup and the mobilization of an arms economy would be,” and the less plausible sending arms and equipment to Great Britain and the Soviet Union would be, given the increasingly obvious necessity of linking American national defense with theirs. “There was also the real concern that a declaration of war against Germany would immediately bring Japan—Hitler’s ally under the Tripartite Pact—into the war.” As it happened, Japan was readying itself for exactly that, with or without an American declaration of war against Germany.

    By the summer of 1941, the Japanese needed to respond to Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union, which “caught Japan’s power elite unawares, in spite of the clear warnings they had been given.” They had hoped to build a coalition based on regime lines, a struggle against the commercial republics; based on the Nazi-Soviet Pact, they had expected an Axis Powers + Soviet Union bloc, freeing them to continue building what they were pleased to call a “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.” Such a bloc would counter the statement issued by Roosevelt and Churchill in their August summit, reaffirming their “commitment to freedom, peace, economic liberalism and the rejection of force in international affairs enunciated in the Atlantic Charter.” But to the Japanese, this meant an intention to maintain “a system of world domination on the basis of Anglo-American world views,” as the most influential Tokyo newspaper editorialized. Foreign Minister Matsuoka Yosuke advocated a military turn to the north to aid the Germans on the grounds that “great men will change their minds.” But the military officers disagreed, expecting a German victory and occupying Indochina while waiting. Fearing a move on the oil-rich Dutch East Indies, the Unted States froze Japanese assets and cut off oil supplies to Japan. With the war in China still boiling, the Japanese knew that they could no longer delay “a gigantic showdown” with the Americans, British, and Dutch. “The only question seemed to be: when?” But there were still Japanese statesmen opposed to expanding the war; they included Prime Minister Konoe Fumimaro and the Emperor. “Opinions in the elites were split,” given the possibly “calamitous” consequences of a protracted war. Nonetheless, “a samurai-like fatalism prevailed”; “destruction with honor was better than survival with shame.” The American ambassador to Japan remarked, “Japanese sanity cannot be measured by American standards of logic.” The ‘logic’ of the one regime—its purposes, its way of life, upheld by its rulers and their ruling institutions—contradicted the ‘logic’ of the other. Put in logical terms, different premises yielded different conclusions.

    Peace overtures from Japanese civilian officials, reciprocated by Roosevelt, finally went nowhere. And in Japan, “diplomacy was only given the briefest of chances.” The conditions Japanese statesmen demanded were unacceptable: cutoff of military and economic aid to Chiang Kai-shek; no extension of Western military presence in the Far East; provision of “necessary economic resources” to Japan. But although the civilian side was willing to eschew further advance into south Asia and to withdraw from Indochina after a peace deal had been reached, the military insisted on a continued alliance with the Axis and the attainment of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. “Without support from the military, no civilian government could survive.” That is, the military had already won the regime struggle within Japan itself, and they regarded war as a ‘now or never’ circumstance. When assured that Japanese forces would win the war in three months, the Emperor initially rebelled, pointing out that the Pacific Ocean is even bigger than China, and we’re already entangled there. But he lacked the real authority he needed to veto the operation; “in practice, it was unthinkable.” “To have attempted conflict with the military leadership in those circumstances would conceivably have been to put the position of the monarchy itself in jeopardy.”

    The Army General Staff issued a statement calling “the construction of a New Order in East Asia” an “unshakable national policy.” The United States stood in the way of that, “obstruct[ing] the Empire’s rise and expansion in East Asia in order to dominate the world and defend democracy” [italics added]. “The policy of Japan is in fundamental contradictions to this”; ergo, “collisions between the two will finally develop into war” as a matter of “historical inevitability.” Thus, a regime conflict was presented and justified under the terms of historicism, as it was in Germany and the Soviet Union, even if the contents of historicist doctrine differed sharply among the rulers of those countries. Not long after this, the prime minister resigned, replaced by hardliner Tojo Hideki. And in any event, the Japanese prime ministers “had no direct control over the operational staff” of either the army or the navy. 

    The Pearl Harbor attack “would be one prong of the overall offensive,” including simultaneous attacks on Malaya, the Philippines, Hong Kong, and soon the Dutch East Indies. Victory in those countries was now anticipated, a bit more modestly, in four to eight months, although the war against the United States would last longer, to be concluded with “a negotiated peace to [Japan’s] advantage.” This treaty would stipulate no more U.S. or British aid to China, thus putting Chiang Kai-Shek on the road to extinction. Japanese military planners anticipated a German declaration of war against the U.S., “which would then become enfeebled through prolonged embroilment in the European conflict.” Although the Emperor “was still wracked with doubts and worries,” the officers had no time to imitate Hamlet, and Hirohito acquiesced. 

    The Americans expected war, but not an attack on Pearl Harbor. They expected an assault somewhere in southeast Asia. Although Pearl Harbor air strike was “a massive shock,” the Japanese had no adequate follow-up to it. The Japanese expected the Americans to fold. (Were its people not a mob of decadent liberal democrats, a soft commercial people incapable of matching the martial valor of the Japanese?) But American public opinion regarded the Sino-Japanese war as “a moral cause”; “the anti-Japanese backlash in the United States stirred by accounts of atrocities by Japan’s army against Chinese civilians had certainly made American public opinion a factor which the Roosevelt administration could not ignore.” At the same time, American and British interests centered not so much in China but in the Pacific Ocean. “To have abandoned China would have had the most serious consequences,” economically, extending to the war in Europe, where Japan was allied with the Axis. A Japanese monopoly in the south Pacific would have seriously injured the sinews of war in Europe. And it would have ruined any prospect of free trade in Asia, once peace returned.

    The next crucial decision belonged to Hitler, who declared war on the United States almost immediately after the Japanese attack. Given the German experience in the First World War, why did he formally invite American intervention in Europe, this time? He had admired Americans’ vast imperial conquest of the most valuable section of the North American continent in the previous century, which he attributed to the virtues of “a dominant white ‘Nordic’ racial core.” He regarded this as a model for his own policy of Lebensraum, and that would come at the expense of Russia, not of far-off America. True, “at some dim and distant future date,” he expected, “a German-dominated Europe would have to face a contest for supremacy with the United States,” a country, “though with a good racial stock in its white population” had come to be ruled by “Jewish capital, and by Jewish control of politics and culture,” according to his lights. In his own words, this made the United States (and Britain) “absolute enemies” of Germany. As he put it, “the only state that will be able to stand up to North America will be the state that has understood how—through the character of its internal life as well as through the substance of its external policy—to raise the racial value of its people and bring it into the most practical national form for this purpose.” Fortunately, the financial crisis of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed had substantially weakened the United States, reinforcing American isolationism and giving the Nazi movement an opportunity to reshape Europe without outside interference. Only in the very late 1930s, as Roosevelt began to stir, did Hitler complain about U.S. “agitating” against Germany, again linking this to hated Jewry. “He depicted Jews as warmongers forcing Germany into a conflict she did not want.” If war did occur, he warned, “then those who had caused it, the Jews, would perish” or, as he put it, “the annihilation of the Jewish race in Europe” would result. He contemptuously rejected FDR’s April 1939 call for an anti-war declaration by the Axis powers. His war strategy required, and expected, rapid victory of the Wehrmacht in Europe, precluding any effective American involvement. The future conflict with America would come no sooner than the mid-1940s, when Germany, “dominating the whole of the European continent, and by this time with a mighty battle-fleet ready to contest control over the oceans,” would be more than ready and able for it. But “Woe betide us if we’re not finished by then,” he confided to his inner circle.

    Hence the decision to support Japan’s war with the United States by declaring war on the United States. With the anticipated thrashing of the Soviet Union in mind, he wanted Japan free to take southeast Asia from its British colonial occupiers and to dismantle American naval bases in the region. This would preoccupy the Allies, giving Germany the time to consolidate its continental empire. Hitler’s lack of any aircraft “capable of bombing American cities” was “his only regret,” although he expected his submarines to deal with the Americans in the Atlantic, after Russia and the Balkans were secured. He told the Japanese ambassador in Berlin that he did not fear the United States because the European armaments industry far surpassed anything Americans could muster. (In this, his assumption was bolstered by his military attaché in Washington, who was confident that “American would not be ready for war before Germany had won it.”)  He was already planning to base his bombers on the Azores, from which sanctuary they could strike North American targets. He told the ambassador, “We should work jointly” to destroy both the Soviet Union and the United States. What he didn’t know was that “the leaders of Japan were less sure than Hitler was that the German war in the east was already won,” as good as won. Nor did he know that Japan had no intention of attacking the Soviets’ eastern flank but instead would push into the south Pacific right away, not waiting for the outcome of the German attack on Russia. But given the limited information he had at the time, Hitler’s declaration of war made good tyrannical sense to him. “He now had the justification he needed for opening up all-out submarine warfare in the Atlantic and preventing the U-boats from being as ‘worthless’ as they had proved in 1915-16.” In the First World War, Japan had been an ally of the republics. No more.

    “Hitler’s extraordinarily inflated hopes in his Japanese ally led him on 11 December [1941] to his fateful choice: all-out war against an enemy whom, as he conceded to [Ambassador] Oshima at the beginning of January 1942, he had no idea how to defeat.” Still, “given his underlying premises, his decision was quite rational,” if not “sensible.” Not only the Soviet Union but the United States would prove more formidable than he wished.

    The tenth and most sinister decision of these months, Hitler’s determination to begin ‘the war against the Jews,’ was documented by Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels, who summarized the Führer’s thoughts: if the Jews “brought about another world war, they would experience their annihilation.” The world war has begun; ergo, “the annihilation of the Jews must be the necessary consequence.” By the end of 1941, the Nazis had already murdered 230,000 Jews, first in the occupied sections of the Soviet Union but soon extended to “the whole of Nazi-occupied Europe.” Unlike the Armenian genocide by the Turks in the First World War, limited to those who refused to convert to Islam, this genocide was ‘racial,’ based on “the pathology of demonic antisemitism” which “defies rationality,” although not the Nazi assumption that “the war could never be won unless the Jews were destroyed.” Hitler held German Jews responsible for Germany’s defeat in the First World War, regarding them “as war profiteers” and “as shirkers avoiding military service and as fomenters of internal unrest that undermined the military effort.” As he put it in Mein Kampf, had “twelve or fifteen thousand of these Hebrew corrupters of the people had been held under poison gas” at the beginning of that war, German victory would have been assured. Less than one percent of the population had ruined all the others, and that, Hitler determined, would not happen again. He had already built a political party in which hatred of Jews formed part of an ideology of racist historicism, giving him thousands of willing co-executioners by the time the Second World War began. “This time,” he promised in a speech in Munich in November 1941, “we will make good what we were then cheated of.” Near the end of the war, he bragged, “I have lanced the Jewish boil. Posterity will be eternally grateful to us.”

    Kershaw concludes by emphasizing the way in which regimes shaped the decisions of statesmen during this period. “The fateful choices that were made were not predetermined or axiomatic. But they did reflect the sort of political system that produced them.” In the tyrannies, Germany and Italy, “all-powerful leaders” could enforce their commands upon the elites, especially given the popular support they shaped by their control of all major media organs. In Japan, where a “collective form of government” of the few prevailed, the truly ruling few were military officers; civilian ministers “falling afoul of the military were soon ousted—or assassinated.” The military ethos of honor and victory crucially inflected all policy choices. “The contrast with the two democratic systems, those of Great Britain and the United States, was stark.” In those regimes, “there was little scope for arbitrary decision-making.” In Great Britain, “even in the extreme gravity of the situation, the decision had arisen from rational debate” in the Cabinet between Churchill and appeasers Halifax and Chamberlain. In the United States, the president wasn’t responsible to his Cabinet, which served more as “an advisory body.” It was Congress, not the Cabinet, that limited executive authority; “and behind Congress there was public opinion to consider.” 

    Regimes inflected but did not determine statesmen’s decisions.

     

     

     

     

    Filed Under: Nations

    The First World War: Geopolitical Miscalculations

    July 16, 2025 by Will Morrisey

    Christopher Clark: The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914. New York: Harper Perennial, 2014. Chapters 5-Conclusion.

     

    In the second half of his book, Clark considers not so much the conditions of Europe prior to the First World War as the prior events and decisions. There had been two Balkan Wars in the years 1911-1913, and the region had seen many conflicts over the centuries. Why did a third Balkan War precipitate a world war?

    In 1911, as Clark has previously mentioned, Italy conquered Tripolitania, an Ottoman province, “triggering a chain of opportunist assaults on Ottoman territories across the Balkans.” This time, given the coalescence of two alliances in Europe, the weakness of the Ottoman Turks, and the self-perceived vulnerability of the Hapsburgs, “the conflicts of the Balkan theater” brought all of Europe into a much larger and more destructive fray. 

    Italy’s attack was “totally unprovoked” by the Ottomans. Italy was the third member of the Triple Alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary. In the past, Italian statesmen had refrained from doing anything that might damage the Ottoman Empire, which the alliance partners deemed a necessary stabilizing force linking Europe to the Middle East. But the recent English acquisition of Egypt and the French acquisition of Morocco inclined those countries to look with indulgence at a similar move by Italy. Italy’s allies disagreed, to no effect. “The Italo-Turkish War, today largely forgotten, disturbed the European and international system in significant ways,” inducing the first stirrings of Arab nationalism and “expos[ing] the weakness, indeed the incoherence, of the Triple Alliance.” The British, less concerned than it had been about Russian advances beyond the Black Sea, decoupled themselves from Ottoman security, leaving that task to the Germans, who had already invested in railway construction there, some twenty years earlier. “The gradual replacement of Britain by Germany as the guardian of the [Turkish] Straits at this particular juncture was of momentous importance, because it happened to coincide with the sundering of Europe into two alliance blocs.”

    In the First Balkan War followed almost immediately after the Italo-Turkish War ended. Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, and Montenegro moved against the Ottomans; Serbia, Greece, Romania and the Ottomans also seized sections of Bulgaria. And almost immediately after that war, the Second Balkan War broke out between Bulgaria and Serbia, allies in the first war. Although the Russian ambassador in Constantinople attempted to work out a deal with the Ottomans for security guarantees in exchange for free passage of Russian warships through the Straits, the Russian ambassador in Belgrade, Nikolai Hartwig, an ardent pan-Slavist and enemy of the Hapsburgs, urged a Serbian-Bulgarian alliance against the Ottomans, and this soon became Russian policy, albeit with much vacillation on the part of Russian foreign minister Sergey Sazonov. An accelerated military buildup ensued. This alarmed London and Paris, with British statesmen concerned about access to Persia and French statesmen concerned about substantial French investments in the Ottoman Empire. It alarmed Austria-Hungary even more, again leading to military preparations. Serbia had become “Russia’s salient in the Balkans, a “drastic diminution of Austria-Hungary’s political influence on the peninsula.” “Vienna’s axiom, that one must always maintain Turkey as the key ordering force in the region, was now irrelevant,” and its own irrelevance now loomed in what looked like the very near future. Equally alarming to Vienna, no one in Europe seemed to understand or care, since European states now thought in terms of the two major alliances; Britain and France in particular increasingly dismissed Austria-Hungary as “an anachronistic and doomed entity,” but even German statesmen seemed to be having their doubts. Indeed, in his current mood of quasi-Hegelian dialectic, Kaiser Wilhelm II regarded the Balkan wars as “part of a world-historical development that was going to drive Islam back out of Europe.” Even the ordinarily pacific Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand called for military confrontation with Serbia. On the other side, France’s premier, then President Raymond Poincaré, supported the Russians. His Chief of the Army General Staff Joseph Joffre, a devotee of the doctrine, “L’attaque, toujours l’attaque,” planned the recovery of Alsace and Lorraine with Russian and British military support. 

    Mutual suspicion between and among alliance partners stoked prewar militarism and detente. No statesman could be quite sure of the intentions of his international rivals or those of his friends. Would the Germans treat with Russia, the Habsburgs worried? Might there be a Russo-German partnership in the Balkans, or an Anglo-German agreement of some sort, Poincaré wondered. The British ambassador to Russia alarmed himself over a possible thaw between the Austrians and the Russians; there was also the very real “armed Russian penetration of northern Persia,” in contravention of the 1907 Anglo-Russian Convention. Further, “from the standpoint of the most influential German military commanders, it seemed blindingly obvious that the geopolitical situation was shifting rapidly to Berlin’s disadvantage,” that “a war between the two alliance blocs was inevitable over the longer term” and that “time was not on Germany’s side,” in view of Russia’s economic growth and “virtually infinite manpower” reinforcing a substantial rearmament campaign, beginning in 1910. The Balkan Wars and British foreign minister Edward Grey’s stated support of France and Russia against Germany in any future war didn’t improve the Germans’ mood, although Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg, fearing a two-front war, reined in the more aggressive General von Moltke for a time. Nonetheless, German military planners did prepare for such a war, citing the 1905 Schlieffen Plan, “which aimed to resolve the problem of a war on two fronts by first mounting a massive strike against France, accompanied by a holding operation in the east.” But again, what if French and especially Russian military power gathered to the point that even that plan wouldn’t work? For his part, Sazonov advocated the seizure of Constantinople and the Turkish Straits, what he called “the natural crown” of Russian “efforts and sacrifices over two centuries of our history” and a path toward unifying the Russian government with its increasingly restive society. Seeking firmer international support, he sought “measures that would transform the Entente into a fully-fledged alliance,” what he called the “greatest alliance known in human history.” He was especially interested in reaching a deal with Britain on naval arrangements in the Turkish Strait. Russia, he wrote, “must still undergo a terrible struggle.” To prepare for this, he also needed to turn Serbian attention away from Bulgaria, a mere sideshow, and toward Austria-Hungary, an entity that could not withstand the impending “verdict of History” against it. That is, not only the Kaiser but the Russian Czarists were as much historicists as their Marxist enemies were, albeit with entirely different ideas about what ‘History’s’ judgment would be. 

    “By the spring of 1914, the Franco-Russian Alliance had constructed a geopolitical trigger along the Austro-Serbian frontier,” tying “the defense policy of three of the world’s greatest powers to the uncertain fortunes of Europe’s most violent and unstable region.” The French needed the Russians as a counterweight to Germany, whether for the reacquisition of Alsace and Lorraine or, more modestly, for self-defense. “Betting so heavily on enabling Russia to seize the initiative against Germany inevitably involved a certain reduction of French autonomy,” a risk Poincaré and his colleagues took “because their primary concern was not that Russia would act precipitately, but rather that she would not act at all,” or, if acting, might target Austria instead of France’s main adversary, Germany. And in fact, the Russians were ‘aiming’ Serbia against the Hapsburgs in order to secure “access to or control of the Straits.” “The Russian ministry of foreign affairs came to see a general war—which in effect meant a war begun in the Balkans—as the only context in which Russia could be sure of acting with the support of its western partners.” Clark cites this as an example of the security dilemma, whereby one state’s efforts to ensure its security makes other states feel insecure, leading to a spiral in which each one edges closer to war without intending war.

    And so, the Austrians determined to check Serbian ambitions while the Germans reinforced the Bismarckian “policy of strength.” “That the policy of strength might antagonize Germany’s neighbors and alienate potential alliance partners was a problem successive policy-makers failed to address.” They exhibited the tendency that the Austrian jurisprudent Georg Jellinek had called, in his 1892 book, System of Subjective Public Laws, “the normative power of the factual,” whereby human beings “tend to gravitate from the observation of what exists to the presumption that an existing state of affairs is normal and thus must embody a certain ethical necessity.” Historicist doctrines do nothing if not amplify this mindset in a ‘secularized’ world, even as doctrines of divine providence had amplified it in earlier times. “These narratives of inevitability take many different forms,” Clark writes, some of them indeed “appeal[ing] to the personal forces of History or Fate.” 

    Clark himself rejects inevitability, emphasizing the fact of statesmanlike agency paralyzed both by the complexity of a ‘multipolar’ world now increasingly but far from entirely ‘bipolar’ and by the fashionable doctrines of historical inevitability that both shaped their perceptions and justified their actions in their own minds. “The future was still open,” inasmuch as “none of the European great powers was at this point,” early in 1914, “contemplating launching a war of aggression against its neighbors,” even while all feared and prepared for war while entertaining hopes of detente.

    The assassinations of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914 “destroyed the best hope for peace.” As one Austrian diplomat said at the time, “the archduke was always against war,” but even foreign minister Leopold von Bechtold, a childhood acquaintance of Franz Ferdinand and no warmonger, now prepared for “direct action” against Serbia, and the elderly Emperor Franz Josef agreed. Only the Hungarian prime minister István Tisza, strongly opposed to the late archduke’s intention to centralize the empire, felt “not grief” but “raw relief” at the murders, pointing to the likelihood that Romania would align with Russia in the event of war; “in view of the immense size of the Romanian minority in [the Austro-Hungarian province of] Transylvania and the indefensibility of the long Romanian frontier, Bucharest’s realignment posed a serious security threat.” As it happened, the Romanians had regarded the Archduke as a friend of the minorities within the empire, but given Tisza’s recalcitrance, both sides agreed to consult their German allies. 

    In Europe as a whole, “attitudes to the murders were refracted through the geopolitics between states.” The Germans sympathized with Austria-Hungary while the Russians cheered the news. The Serbians were stupefied by their compatriot’s act but didn’t regret it. England blamed Serbia; the Italians had “mixed feelings”; the French were distracted by a sex scandal. Russia’s response was the ominous one. The Russians falsely believed that the archduke had been “the head of an Austrian war party,” when the truth was quite the opposite. If so, then Austria’s outrage was feigned, a pretext for war, and the plot merely reflected “the local unpopularity of the Habsburg dynasty among the Southern Slavs,” having “nothing to do with Serbia” at all. And even if the assassin was a Serbian nationalist, no one in the Serbian government had anything to do with his plot, the Russians believed. All of this meant that Vienna had no right to punish Serbia, as no sovereign state could be held accountable “for the actions of private persons on foreign soil,” doubtless anarchists. Poincaré picked up the latter part of this argument; “neither London nor Paris intended to challenge the Russian version of events.”  “The entire history of Russia’s sponsorship of Serbian expansionism and of Balkan instability in general was elided from view,” as was “any acknowledgement of Russia’s own links with the Serbian underground networks” that had planned the atrocity. 

    Contrary to the sentiments of the Entente countries, “for once, the German government was speaking with one voice,” assuring Austria-Hungary of its support in the event of punitive action. The Germans miscalculated on one thing, however, assuming that Russia would not come to the aid of the Serbs if the Austrians moved against them. They were so confident of this that they didn’t mobilize for what they expected to be a “localized” conflict—a “gross misreading of the level of risk.” After all, according to the Germans’ own analysis, wasn’t time “on Russia’s side”? And why would a monarch, the Czar, side with regicides, the Kaiser asked, rhetorically. “The Germans were unaware of the extent to which an Austro-Serbian quarrel had already been built into Franco-Russian strategic thinking,” and “how indifferent the two western powers,” France and Britain, “would be to the question of who had provoked the quarrel.” Even as the Germans expected a Balkan war to solidify Austria’s adherence to Germany, so the French expected that a Balkan war would solidify its alliance with Russia. That part, unfortunately for all concerned, proved correct, as in the end even Tisza went along with the Austrians. “No sustained attention was given to the question of whether Austria-Hungary was in any position to wage a war with one or more other European great powers,” perhaps out of confidence in the alliance with powerful Germany, perhaps because “the hive-like structure of the Austro-Hungarian political elite was simply not conducive to the formulation of decisions through the careful sifting and balancing of contradictory information,” and surely because “the Austrians were so convinced of the rectitude of their case and of their proposed remedy against Serbia that they could conceive of no alternative to it.” How else could Austria-Hungary remain “a great power,” if it couldn’t even punish little Serbia for an outrage quite likely committed with the knowledge of its rulers?

    The new French ambassador in St Petersburg was Maurice Paléologue, a high school classmate of Poincaré who shared the Prime Minister’s antipathy to the Germans. In Paléologue’s view, no “reconciliation between Austrian and Russian interests” in the Balkans was possible. “Enough of all this,” he exclaimed, “we should show Germany our strength!” This entirely comported with “Poincaré’s security credo: the alliance is our bedrock; it is the indispensable key to our military defense; it can only be maintained by intransigence in the face of demands from the opposing bloc.” Although he didn’t propose war against Austria-Hungary, he hinted to the Czar that he would support one, if Austria attacked Serbia. “This time we must hold firm.” He expected peace because he supposed “that Germany and Austria might well back down in the face of such unflinching solidarity.” At the same time, Czar Nicholas II, relieved of any concerns about France, wanted to make sure of Britain. 

    Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia, first recalling Serbia’s assurance of good relations in the 1909 Treaty of Berlin, in which Serbia recognized Austria’s annexation of Bosnia-Herzegonia. This notwithstanding, the Serbian authorities had continued to tolerate a “subversive movement,” the Black Hand, which had undertaken “acts of terrorism, by a series of outrages and by murders” and moreover had fomented hatred of Austria among the Serbian people. Still worse, those authorities may well have aided and abetted the murderers of the archduke, both planning the crime and facilitating the entrance of the assassins into Bosnia. Accordingly, the Serbs must publicly repudiate pan-Serbian irredentism, collaborate with Austrians to suppress the subversive movement within Serbian borders, and assist Austrian investigators in finding and arresting those responsible. “Without some form of Austrian supervision and verification,” Serbians could not be trusted to do those things themselves. The Austrians scarcely expected Serbia to acquiesce in such violations of its sovereignty and, after receiving assurances that Russia backed them, they didn’t. The Serbs replied, carefully, that they were perplexed by the Austrians’ demands—shocked, simply shocked, as the movie line has it, that any such base actions could be ascribed to them. The Russians undertook a precautionary mobilization and on July 28th the Austrians declared war. Russia requested that Austria extend the time limit of its ultimatum, told the Serbians not to strike first but to withdraw its troops from the border, withdrew funds invested in Germany and Austria, and continued to prepare for war. For their part, the Germans had no way to distinguish between pre-mobilization and real mobilization, seeing only troop movements. Russia had “escalated the crisis and greatly increased the likelihood of a general European war,” simultaneously emboldening the Serbs and alarming the Germans. Sazonov “had never acknowledged that Austria-Hungary had a right to countermeasures in the face of Serbian irredentism. On the contrary, he had endorsed the politics of Balkan irredentism and had explicitly aligned himself with the view that Serbia was the rightful successor to the lands of unredeemed South Slavdom within the dual monarchy, an obsolete multiethnic structure whose days, in his view, were in any case numbered. It does not seem to have occurred to him that the days of the autocratic, multi-ethnic Russian Empire, whose minority relations were in worse condition that Austria-Hungary’s, might also be numbered.” He rather expected war to unite all the minorities behind the czarist regime.

    Clark judges that Russia’s policy “fully makes sense only if we read it against the background of the Russian leadership’s deepening anxiety about the future of the Turkish Straits” in the wake of the disruptions of the Balkan Wars and an ongoing naval arms race between the Ottomans and the Greeks in the Aegean Sea. A war between those countries might bring the British navy into the region and even worse, the Turks might bring their modern battleships into the Black Sea, battleships the Russians didn’t have. As Sazonov told his ambassador in London, “We cannot stand idly by and watch the continued and also very rapid expansion of the Ottoman naval forces.” To deter the Ottomans, we must bridle the Hapsburgs.

    In the summer of 1914, the question of Irish Home Rule preoccupied British politicians and military officers. With “an army corps dominated by Protestant Anglo-Irish families” opposed to Home Rule, and given the likelihood that “a continental military intervention would mean forgoing the introduction of Home Rule,” the pro-Home Rule Liberal Party government of Prime Minister H. H. Asquith announced that while Austria-Hungary’s “bullying and humiliating ultimatum” might lead to “a real Armageddon” on the continent, the British would need be no more than “spectators”; his Foreign Secretary, Edward Grey, advised the Russian ambassador not to give Germans any pretext to intervene, then proposed diplomatic mediation. He was inclined to overlook Austria’s security concerns, taking Austrian and Russian mobilization as morally equivalent. He “acquiesced in the Russian view that a ‘Serbian war inevitably meant a European war.'” He reaffirmed his opinion that the interests of the Entente prevailed over any Balkan conflict, which Entente partners Russia and France considered to be “pretexts” for war against themselves. “It would be impolitic, not to say dangerous, for England to attempt to controvert this opinion, or to obscure the plain issue,” namely, that the struggle “is not for the possession of Serbia,” but “between Germany aiming at a political dictatorship in Europe and the Powers who desire to retain individual freedom.”

    For their part, the Germans warned the Russians “that they would consider mobilizing their own forces unless Russia halted its own mobilization,” a warning Russia, in “one of the most momentous decisions of the July Crisis,” ignored after Austria-Hungary declared war on July 28. Sazonov suspected that “Austria’s intransigence was in fact Germany’s policy,” which to some degree it was, inasmuch as Germany supported the Austrians “rather than pressuring its ally to back down.” “This was an idea of great importance, because it allowed the Russians to establish Berlin as the moral fulcrum of the crisis and the agent upon which all hope of peace rested.” France’s Paléologue chimed in, assuring the Russians of his country’s support “in case of necessity.” In the last days, Nicholas II nonetheless attempted to avert the war in an exchange of telegraph messages to his cousin, Wilhelm II (the Czar’s permission was needed to authorize a general mobilization), but his counterpart rejected the overture. 

    Clark describes the statesmen’s mental “environment” as “saturated with paranoia.” Everyone “claim[ed] to be standing with their backs against the wall.” He judges that there was “nothing in how [the Germans] reacted to the events of summer 1914” that “suggests that they viewed the crisis as the welcome opportunity to set in train a long-laid plan to unleash a preventive war on Germany’s neighbors.” They expected both France and Britain to hold back. Britain nearly did, but Grey conceded that a German attack on the French coastline or an attack on France through Belgium might well be a casus belli in the eyes of the Cabinet. First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill asked for, and received, Cabinet permission for “a precautionary mobilization of the fleet.” In addition to the German threat, however, Clark suggests that the British were at least equally concerned about ever-increasing Russian power, especially in Persia and Central Asia; as one British ambassador put it, “We must retain [Russia’s] friendship at almost any cost.” “Whether one identified Russia or Germany as the chief threat,” Clark writes, “the outcome was the same, since British intervention on the side of the Entente offered a means both of appeasing and tethering Russia and of opposing and containing Germany.” In response, the Germans miscalculated, disbelieving that the Brits meant business. 

    In view of all this, Clark judges “the outbreak of war [as] a tragedy, not a crime.” The “multipolar and genuinely interactive” geopolitics of Europe, with its complex intertwining of widely different regimes that shared the common state form of imperialism led to a war in which “none of the prizes for which the politicians of 1914 contended was worth the cataclysm that followed.” 

     

    Filed Under: Nations

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